913
FXUS63 KGID 031125
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
625 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO AT TIMES MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING FOCUSED FURTHER SOUTH WITH TIME, AND COMING TO AN END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BY THIS EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- AFTER A HOT START TO THE WEEK WITH MONDAY'S HIGHS NEAR 90,
TODAY IS NOTABLY COOLER, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S THANKS
TO US SITTING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A COLD FRONT, PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
- FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IS DRY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S,
WITH PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING FOR THURSDAY ON
THROUGH THE END OF THIS 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS IN THE
80S LOOK TO RETURN FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
CURRENTLY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH ACTIVITY NOT AS STRONG
AS IT WAS EARLIER THIS EVENING. EARLIER ACTIVITY CAME INTO THE
FORECAST FROM 2 DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS...FROM THE NW WHICH FIRED
ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT, AND FROM THE WSW WHICH WERE TIED
MORE TO THE DRYLINE. ENDED WITH A FOCUSED AREA OF ENHANCED WIND
GUSTS AROUND 60-70 MPH ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 281, BETWEEN
I-80 AND THE NE/KS STATE LINE...LOSING INTENSITY AS IT PUSHED
FURTHER ENE. ONE ASPECT THAT WAS LACKING, KEEPING OVERALL
INTENSITY DOWN WAS DEEPER LAYER SHEAR. THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING
HELPING DRIVE THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY PUSH OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS...WITH SOUTHERN STORMS ALSO AIDED BY A CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE NOSE OF A 35-40KT LLJ. THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...CURRENTLY DRAPED
ROUGHLY NEAR THE NE/KS STATE LINE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2- 4
INCH RANGE FELL ACROSS NNW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...DROPPING OFF QUITE A BIT AS YOU GO SOUTH. THOUGH RAIN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS.
REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN BY
THIS UPPER LEVEL FORCING CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS...AND HOW PRECIPITATION WILL TREND WITH TIME. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT KEEPING ACTIVITY FAIRLY WIDESPREAD THROUGH THE
MID-LATE MORNING HOURS...THEN GRADUALLY FOCUSING FURTHER SOUTH
WITH TIME. KEPT AT LEAST LOW END/20 PERCENT CHANCES IN FAR NNW
AREAS THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON...BUT MODELS SUGGEST THAT'S PLENTY
GENEROUS. ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOCUSING FURTHER
SOUTH WITH TIME...SO DOES THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT (AND
BETTER INSTABILITY)...WHICH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS/POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTH...BUT MAIN SEVERE THREAT EXTENDS FROM
TX UP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, AND OUR FORECAST AREA IS
OUTSIDE OF THE SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOKED AREAS. AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH...BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS
NEAR 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE AREA SITTING ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THAT COLD FRONT, PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AROUND AND LINGERING
PRECIPTIATION CHANCES...HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NOTABLE
CHANGE FROM MONDAY. AFTER HIGHS ON MONDAY RIGHT AROUND 90
DEGREES...HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO ONLY REACH THE LOW-MID
60S.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE AREA REMAINING UNDER
GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS, SITTING ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD TROUGHING...BUT THE FORECAST REMAINS
DRY WITH A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT...BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS, WHICH COULD BE ON THE
LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE IN SOME LOCATIONS. DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, WINDS SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH AS THAT SFC HIGH
SLIDES TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURE REDEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE, TOPPING
OUT AROUND 10-15 MPH. EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...WITH HIGHS BOUNCING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 70S. OVERALL
NOT TOO BAD OF A DAY.
THURSDAY ON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND REMAINS A GENERALLY LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WITH
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES SCATTERED THROUGHOUT. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINING MORE
ZONAL IN NATURE DURING THE THU-SAT TIMEFRAME...THEN TURNING MORE
NWRLY FOR SUN-MON. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION,
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE BETTER CHANCES FOCUSED IN THE LATE WED
NIGHT-THUR NIGHT TIME FRAME...WITH 40-70 PERCENT CHANCES...VS
MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES SCATTERED FRIDAY AND ON.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO WORK THEIR WAY BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...BUT AT LEAST AT THIS POINT, MODELS LARGELY KEEP THE
BETTER INSTABILITY FOCUSED OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA. WE'LL
SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...HIGHS FOR THU-FRI REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE 70S...THEN CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S FOR THIS
WEEKEND. AT THIS POINT NONE OF THE DAYS THU-MON LOOK TO BE
OVERLY WINDY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
LOW CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BOTH
TERMINAL AREAS THIS MORNING...AND IFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MID-MORNING. BAND OF RAIN STRETCHING FROM
NORTHEAST NE SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-CENTRAL KS WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...KEEPING THOSE RAIN
CHANCES IN PLACE THROUGH ROUGHLY MIDDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
END TIME OF PRECIP IS NOT OVERLY HIGH...SOME MODELS LINGER
ACTIVITY AROUND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, SO DO HAVE PROB30 AT
BOTH SITES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING CEILINGS
EVENTUALLY LIFTING TO MVFR, THEN VFR...SIMILAR TO PRECIP, NOT A
HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THOSE
IMPROVEMENTS. EXPECTING THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH...GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
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