248
FXUS63 KGID 040022 CCA
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
722 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN ENDS BY THIS EVENING. DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE AGAIN
THURSDAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
- ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY.
- TRENDING DRIER AND WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
AS OF EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, ALTHOUGH THIS IS STARTING TO
CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ON THE ORDER OF
0.05-0.15" IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA,
BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY AROUND 6-7PM THIS
EVENING. CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH
THESE LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINFALL, SOME PATCHY FOG WOULD NOT
BE A HUGE SURPRISE, BUT NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT SHOW MUCH
SUPPORT FOR THIS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY, AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOLER SIDE WITH LARGE UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
CONUS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SANDHILLS, BUT CAMS
MAINTAIN THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE GID
FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE SW CONUS,
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED, AND THEREFORE THE SEVERE THREAT IS LOW. LOW CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL TREND A BIT WARMER (MID 70S), AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE A BIT...BUT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS PRETTY LOW...ESPECIALLY FOR EARLY JUNE.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING/TRACK OF THIS WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FEATURES...WHICH IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. THAT SAID, IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE A
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THREAT.
INCREASING RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROMOTE A DRIER
PATTERN AS WE START NEXT WEEK, AND TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO
RETURN TO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 722 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WINDS):
THIS IS AN OVERALL-HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST REGARDING VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY AND PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS, AND TAFS
REFLECT THIS ACCORDINGLY. ANY CEILING SHOULD BE NO LOWER THAN
5-10K FT., AND MAINLY RIGHT AWAY THESE FIRST FEW HOURS, THEN AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE A VERY MINIMAL FACTOR, WITH
THE "STRONGEST" SPEEDS OF THE PERIOD OCCURRING RIGHT OUT OF THE
GATE THIS EVENING FOR 1-2 HOURS (NORTHERLY AROUND 10KT).
THEREAFTER, SPEEDS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE AT-
OR-BELOW 7KT, WITH DIRECTION VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO WED AM BEFORE
BECOMING MORE CONSISTENTLY SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
- TWO LOW-PROBABILITY "CATCHES" TO CONSIDER (NOT REFLECTED IN
TAFS):
1) ALTHOUGH VARIOUS MODELS/GUIDANCE ARE FAIRLY INSISTENT THAT IT
WON'T OCCUR DUE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING SLIGHTLY TOO
DRY, PROBABLY CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME "SNEAKY" PATCHY
LIGHT FOG ESPECIALLY A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE, WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITY TO SUB-VFR SHOULD IT MATERIALIZE.
2) ALTHOUGH IT WOULD SURELY BE OF MINIMAL CONSEQUENCE, A ROGUE
SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER PROBABLY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE PASSES THROUGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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