714
FXUS63 KGID 040900
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
400 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN OVERALL QUIET DAY EXPECTED TODAY, WITH WINDS REMAINING ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, AROUND 10-15 MPH. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY, BUT
ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE JUST NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INSERT A
MENTION AT THIS POINT. HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
- A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES BRING PRECIP CHANCES
BACK TO THE FORECAST...STARTING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY. TONIGHT-THURSDAY, ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD
ACROSS MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA...THUR NIGHT-FRIDAY, THE
BETTER CHANCES MAY FOCUS MORE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. AT THIS
TIME, THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- MORE NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW BUILDS IN THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A COUPLE MORE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND, DRYING OUT FOR MON-TUES. HIGHS
EXPECTED TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 80S FOR MUCH OF THIS
TIME FRAME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
CURRENTLY THROUGH TODAY...
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING CONTINUED
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE, AS WE SIT ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
BROAD TROUGHING FROM LOW PRESSURE SET UP OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
SHIFT EAST OF THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST/GULF COAST REGIONS,
WHILE OTHER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE SPIN ALONG THE EASTERN FL
COAST, JUST OFF THE FAR NERN COAST, AND OVER SRN CA. SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING THAT OUTSIDE OF A BIG OF UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST, SKIES SO FAR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN
MOSTLY CLEAR. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DOMINATES
THE AREA, THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS KEEPING WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
LIGHT, GENERALLY WNWRLY AROUND 5 MPH...THOUGH AT TIMES ARE MORE
VARIABLE IN NATURE.
LOOKING AT THE REST OF TODAY...THE FORECAST CURRENTLY REMAINS
DRY. ONE UNCERTAINTY FOR TODAY LIES WITH PRECIPTIATION
CHANCES...MODELS SHOWING A SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
BRINGING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES TO PRIMARLY WNW PORTIONS OF NE. AM
A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT SOME AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP AROUND THE AREA, MAINLY AROUND MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT WITH MOST MODELS KEEPING THINGS DRY, KEPT MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECAST. EVEN IF SHOWERS WERE TO DEVELOP, WOULD
EXPECT MINIMAL IMPACT/AMOUNTS. MODELS SHOWING CLOUD COVER TO
CONTINUE INCREASING THIS MORNING, BRINGING PARTLY-MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, THE CURRENT
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY...WITH WINDS THEN TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
TIME, AS THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST, BUT
SPEEDS THROUGH THE DAY LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10-15 MPH. DIDN'T
MAKE ANY NOTABLE CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY...WHICH WILL BE
AN IMPROVEMENT FROM TUESDAY'S LOW-MID 60S, REACHING THE LOW-MID
70S FOR TODAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, WITH
PRECIP CHANCES RETURNING TONIGHT. MODELS SHOWING THE FIRST OF
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE REGION MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...IF ANYTHING, SLOWED DOWN
THE ONSET OF POPS IN THE FORECAST JUST A TOUCH. HAVE CHANCES
MOVING IN AFTER 06Z...AND WITH MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF
AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE BETTER CHANCES, KEPT CHANCES
NO HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT OUTSIDE OF THE FAR SW CORNER OF
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHER CHANCES BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY...WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA HAVING 50-60
PERCENT CHANCES...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH
THE OVERALL COVERAGE, SOME MODELS ARE MORE SPOTTY WITH ACTIVITY
AS IT THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH THAN OTHERS. DURING THE DAY, CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME STORMS AROUND, BUT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT NOT SHOWING A NOTABLE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY, SO THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. BECAUSE OF LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY WITH PRECIP CHANCES/COVERAGE, CONFIDENCE IN HIGH
TEMPS IS NOT HIGH...FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MID 60S-LOW 70S.
WINDS LOOKING TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY, SPEEDS TOPPING OUT AROUND
10-15 MPH.
THURSDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT...MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE
PLAINS, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS THE REGION. AT
THIS POINT, MODELS KEEP THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS ACTIVITY JUST
OFF TO OUR SOUTH...BUT HOW FAR TO THE SOUTH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
THE MAIN SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARIES SET UP. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MID-LATE AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CO AND
OVER SWRN KS...SHIFTING EAST DURING THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE BETTER INSTABILITY
STRUGGLES TO MAKE IT THIS FAR NORTH...SO THE OVERALL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS LOW, AND THE SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL/SLIGHT
RISK OUTLOOKS REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH...BUT NOT BY MUCH.
BY THE TIME 12Z FRIDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE SHIFTED ESE OF THE FORECAST
AREA...BUT WITH MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN,
CAN'T RULE OUT LINGERING SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.
HARD TO JUSTIFY MANY CHANCES HIGHER THAN 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS
THE AREA WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS AND THE POTENTIAL
SCATTERED NATURE OF LINGERING ACTIVITY. A WEAK SFC FRONT PASSING
THROUGH SWITCHES WINDS TO THE NORTH FOR FRIDAY...BUT SPEEDS
REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE, TOPPING OUT AROUND 10-15 MPH. HIGHS
FOR FRIDAY REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 70S.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MODELS SHOWING MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE
REGION AS WE GET INTO THIS LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY THESE LATE WEEK DISTURBANCES PUSHING FURTHER
EAST, AND A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIGGING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA AND EVENTUALLY SETTLING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. AS IT DOES SO...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TO SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION.
DETAILS REGARDING TIMING ARE FAIRLY BROAD THIS FAR OUT...BUT
MODELS SHOWING THE THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVING IN SATURDAY EVENING-
NIGHT, THEN THE NEXT QUICK ON ITS HEELS SUNDAY EVENING-
NIGHT...THEN THE FORECAST DRIES OUT FOR MON-TUE. CHANCES REMAIN
IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE AT THIS POINT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID
80S...SAME FOR TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS A TOUCH LOWER FOR MONDAY IN
THE MID 70S-NEAR 80. AS FAR AS WINDS GO...STILL NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE OVERLY STRONG WINDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WINDS LOOK TO
BE SOUTHERLY SATURDAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY, WITH MORE NORTHERLY
WINDS SUN-MON...SPEEDS GENERALLY PEAKING AROUND 15 MPH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD REMAINS VFR. KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY, BUT IT'S NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...JUST NOT NEARLY
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INSERT A MENTION. WINDS THE REST OF TONIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE
SIDE...TURNING MORE ESE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH
SPEEDS LOOKING TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page