529
FXUS63 KGID 042012
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
312 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY (CHANCES UP TO
50-65% FOR OUR NEBRASKA AREAS AND UP TO 70-80% FOR OUR KANSAS
AREAS).
- THE COMBINATION OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIKELY NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (BEST CHANCES SOUTH) COULD BRING UP TO
0.1-0.3" OF PRECIPITATION WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY FOR
OUR KANSAS AREAS.
- A FEW MORE SMALLER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS RETURN SATURDAY
(15-30%) AND SUNDAY NIGHT (10-25%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
..SHORT TERM
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY/NIGHT SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUIET, THOUGH A FEW
POCKETS OF MORE ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR TWO MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE (15-
25% CHANCE). LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S TONIGHT WILL REBOUND
TO ONLY THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FROM OVERCAST SKIES THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE HAS KEPT WINDS LIGHT AND OUT OF GENERALLY
THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
ALOFT, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, A PART OF A POSITIVELY TILTED WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH, HAS HELPED PUSH IN SOME CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY
SOON HELP DEVELOP SOME INTERMITTENT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE
PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE STARTING TOMORROW MORNING AS A CLUSTER
OF STORM REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION, MOVE UP AND INTO THE
AREA (FROM NORTHEAST CO). THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT THE
COVERAGE OF THESE REMNANTS MAY BE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.
THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SHOW A SLIGHTLY MORE AGGRESSIVE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS COMPARED TO THE HRRR). WE CURRENTLY HAVE
OUR POPS PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN
REDEVELOPMENT OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS IS THE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.
POPS PEAK UP TO 50-65% FOR OUR NEBRASKA AREAS AND UP TO 70-80% FOR
OUR KANSAS AREAS.
THESE INTERMITTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCRES WILL PRIMARILY BE FROM
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GENERALLY FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE
WHERE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY RESIDES. IT IS NOT VERY LIKELY
FOR ANY STORM TO BECOME SEVERE, THOUGH A ROGUE STORM IN SOUTHERN
ROOKS/OSBOURN COUNTIES IS NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE REALM OF
POSSIBILITIES. PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF UP TO 0.1-0.3" IS ALL THAT
WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
FRIDAY WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS LYING TOWARD THE SOUTH (LOCALLY UP
TO 0.5").
..LONG TERM
FRIDAY AND BEYOND
A FEW MORE PASSING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES REINTRODUCE
SOME WEAKER POPS ON SATURDAY (15-30%) AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MAINLY FAR SOUTHWEST AREAS (10-25%). A FEW POP UP THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SYSTEM
LOOKS EVIDENT AS RIDGING IS FAVORED TO SLIP IN FROM THE WEST MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATES WILL BE BACK ON THE RISE AGAIN FRIDAY (70S)
AND SATURDAY (LOW TO MID 80S) AS SKIES CLEAR OUT. A COLD FRONT
PASSAGE SUNDAY MAY KNOCK HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY (MID 70S TO LOW 80S). HIGHS THEREAFTER WOULD BE EXPECTED TO
SHORTLY RETURN BACK TO THE 80S. WINDS, BESIDES SATURDAY
(SOUTHWESTERLY), WILL KEEP A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS AT THIS TIME ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BLOW ANY STRONGER THAN
20 MPH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED JUN 4 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT AT LEAST 18 HOURS WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS AFTER 12Z THAT COULD BRING MAINLY MVFR
(50-70%) AND POTENTIALLY IFR (20-40%) CONDITIONS WITH THE BETTER
CONFIDENCE AT KEAR. MVFR CEILINGS COULD OCCUR AS SOON AS 13Z
FOR KEAR AND 15Z FOR KGRI. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BETWEEN
12 AND 18Z. ANY RAIN SHOWER COULD DROP VISIBILITY TO AS LOW AS 4
MILES. WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT (<10KTS) AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
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