398
FXUS63 KGID 222348
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT NWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- AFTER ANOTHER HOT AND WINDY DAY TODAY, AN APPROACHING SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WILL BRING RELIEF. WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE NNW
BEHIND THE FRONT, AND HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR MOST WILL TOP OUT IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S. FAR SE AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY
HAVE TIME TO CLIMB UP NEAR 90.
- WHERE THIS COLD FRONT ULTIMATELY ENDS UP BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
ON MONDAY WILL DETERMINE WHO HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AT THIS POINT, MODELS FAVOR A ROOKS COUNTY, KS
TO THAYER COUNTY, NE LINE. STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE.
- PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MID-WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION DETAILS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 80S-90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE WEEKEND IS COMING TO AN END WITH YET ANOTHER DAY HOT AND
WINDY CONDITIONS...BUT THANKFULLY SOME RELIEF IS ON THE WAY.
LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A WELL
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. DOMINATED BY HIGH
PRESSURE/RIDGING ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING
DIGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO SOUTHERN CA, THIS LEAVES
SHARP SSW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, A SOMEWHAT STATIONARY COLD FRONT REMAINS DRAPED FROM
FAR SWRN NE UP INTO CENTRAL SD, BARELY OUTSIDE THE WESTERN EDGE
OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THANKS TO THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO HELP MIX SOME STRONGER SPEEDS DOWN,
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN
THE 20-30 MPH RANGE AND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH. NO BIG SURPRISES
WITH HIGHS TODAY, WITH 3PM SHOWING WIDESPREAD 90S, WITH RIGHT AT
100 IN FAR WSW SPOTS.
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ALONG THAT SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OUR
WEST AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT. HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT ANYTIME IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AT LEAST
ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. EXPECTED IN AN AXIS OF HOTTER
TEMPERATURES/STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND BETTER FORCING WITH THAT
SFC/LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY AROUND...THE COVERAGE MAY STRUGGLE IN
LARGE PART DUE TO THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING. WHAT
DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE MAINLY NEWARD ALONG THE FRONT/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT SHOWING AT
LEAST INITIALLY NOT A TON OF EASTWARD PUSH, KEEPING THE BEST
CHANCES THROUGH EARLY- MID EVENING FOCUSED ACROSS OUR FAR WNW
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHAT STORMS DO DEVELOP LOOK TO HAVE MODEST
MLCAPE, AROUND 2000 J/KG, BUT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR DROPS THE
FURTHER EAST AWAY FROM THAT SFC BOUNDARY YOU GET. ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE STRONG-SEVERE...LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
MID-LATE EVENING, MODELS SHOWING THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY SHIFTING
MAINLY OFF TO OUR NNE...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL CHANCES THROUGH THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE MAIN SURFACE
FRONT GRADUALLY MARCHING ESE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AND
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EDGE OF AN INCREASED LLJ. CAN'T TOTALLY
RULE OUT AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ANYWHERE AS THIS
FORCING SHIFTS EAST...BUT WITH MODELS SHOWING ACTIVITY BEING
ISOLATED TO AT BEST SCATTERED, HARD TO HAVE FORECAST CHANCES
ABOVE 20-30 PERCENT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE ON THE
STRONGER SIDE, BUT EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AS WE GET INTO MONDAY, BIG QUESTION LIES WITH EXACTLY WHERE THAT
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENDS UP...AS THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES. AT 12Z...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY DECENT
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE SW-NE ORIENTED BOUNDARY BEING ROUGHLY
HALFWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LINGERING ISOLATED ACTIVITY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY...AND AM ADMITTEDLY ON THE GENEROUS SIDE WITH 20 PERCENT
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...LIGHTER WINDS (TURNING NORTHERLY
AS THE FRONT PASSES), MORE CLOUD COVER, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...THEY WILL HAVE MORE
TIME TO WARM UP, AND HIGHS REACHING NEAR 90 ARE FORECAST. TO
THE NORTH, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID-70S. IN THE
MIDDLE...STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY/WIDER RANGE OF WHERE HIGHS
COULD END UP. IT'S GOING TO DEPEND ON THE SPEED THE FRONT...A
FASTER PASSAGE, COOLER...SLOWER, WARMER. FORECAST IS IN LINE
WITH MOST GUIDANCE...BUT THERE ARE SOME SHOWING IT COULD BE
COOLER IN SPOTS WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD OVER AND POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTED SHOWERY ACTIVITY LINGERING LONGER INTO THE DAY.
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH MOST
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING IT ROUGHLY ALONG A ROOKS
CTY, KS TO THAYER CTY, NE LINE. WHILE THAT AREA WILL BE MOST
FAVORED FOR MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AND BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS, ELEVATED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE
SFC FRONT...IMPACTING MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS THERE IS CONCERN ABOUT STORMS TRAINING, AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW/STORM MOTION RUNS MORE PARALLEL TO THE SFC
BOUNDARY...SO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW ANY LONG ANY PARTICULAR STORM/CLUSTER
IS SUSTAINED...MODEL MLCAPE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT LOOKS TO
EXCEED 2000 J/KG, BUT DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY STRONG.
WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT OF HEAVIER RAIN AMOUNTS
LIES IS ACROSS SERN AREAS, SOME OF WHICH HAVE HAD TIME TO DRY
OUT AFTER ROUGHLY 1-2 INCHES FELL BACK ON THE 16-17TH.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, KEEPING US IN
THAT SSWRLY FLOW WITH THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC
SHORTWAVES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. HARD TO HAVE A HIGH DEGREE
OF CONFIDENCE IN ANY SPECIFIC TIMING/LOCATION DETAILS...WHEN
ESPECIALLY SFC/LOW LEVEL FEATURES COULD BE IMPACTED BY HOW
THINGS EVOLVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT.
CAN'T RULE OUT STRONG-SEVERE STORMS...TUESDAY HAS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA INCLUDED IN THE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK. ALONG
WITH THE HAIL/WIND THREAT, WOULD EXPECT ANY ACTIVITY TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKERS...SO WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR WHERE
THINGS LINE UP.
THURSDAY AND ON...
AS WE GET INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK, MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW THE BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FINALLY BREAKING DOWN.
AIDED BY THIS LATEST SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING IN WED-WED
NIGHT, MODELS SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION
TRANSITIONING FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO MORE ZONAL IN NATURE, AS
THAT RIDGING SET UP TO OUR EAST BREAKS DOWN. THE EXACT TIMING OF
THAT TRANSITION IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, WITH SOME
MODELS SHOWING THAT LATEST SYSTEM STILL MAKING ITS FINAL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND, THE MORE PROGRESSIVE, ZONAL
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE CONTINUED POTENTIAL OF
PERIODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
AT THIS POINT, CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING/LOCATION OF ANY OF
THESE DISTURBANCES IS DEFINITELY NOT HIGH...SO FORECAST CHANCES
ARE PRETTY LOW, WITH 20-40 PERCENT FOR THURSDAY, THEN SPOTTY
20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FRI-SUN.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, NOT LOOKING AT ANY NOTABLE SWINGS
EITHER WAY, WITH THE FORECAST CONTINUING TO CALL FOR HIGHS IN
THE 80S-90S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LARGELY NORTHWEST OF EAR/GRI THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ELEVATED SURFACE WINDS AND LLWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY MORNING.
MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING. CEILINGS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BECOMING VFR
AGAIN BY MONDAY EVENING. MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IS THEN LIKELY TO
RETURN MONDAY NIGHT (50-80% CHANCE).
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
MONDAY, AND A FEW SHOWERS (POSSIBLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS
WELL) MAY REDEVELOP LATER MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ060-072-073-
082>085.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-086-087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...MANGELS
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