988
FXUS63 KGID 231007
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
507 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT BISECTS THE AREA TODAY, LEADING TO MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES NORTH, BUT ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY SOUTH WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK. SEVERE
THREAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW, BUT NOT
ZERO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO A POSSIBILITY.
- AFTER TODAY, TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN 80S
AND 90S - WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY.
- FRIDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND APPEAR MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM, WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IN ABOUT A
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
AS MENTIONED IN THE 06Z UPDATE...COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE
STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SE THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY RESIDES
FROM AROUND OLU TO GRI TO HDE. A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE IS
UNDERWAY BEHIND THE FRONT AS STIFF NRLY WINDS USHER IN MUCH
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY WARM FOR THIS HOUR IN LATE JUNE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES - DUE IN LARGE PART BY CONTINUED STRONG SRLY
FLOW. PRECIPITATION ALONG THE FRONT HAS BECOME QUITE SPOTTY AND
UNORGANIZED OVER THE LAST 1-2HRS AS ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS A MORE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG CIN AND NEUTRAL OR
SLIGHT MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINNING TO OUTRUN THE HEIGHT
FALLS/BETTER UPPER SUPPORT AND LOSS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
RELATED OUTFLOW...EXPECT IT'S FORWARD MOMENTUM TO SLOW
CONSIDERABLY BY MID TO LATE AM. LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN STALLING THE FRONT FROM AROUND
HJH TO HLC BY MIDDAY, ALLOWING AREAS S OF THE FRONT TO
EXPERIENCE ANOTHER HOT (AND SOMEWHAT HUMID) AFTERNOON IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT, HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN
MUCH COOLER IN THE 70S ON STEADY NRLY BREEZES, PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER, AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME ISO SHOWERS.
APPEARS COMBINATION OF INCREASING MASS CONVERGENCE COINCIDING
WITH WEAKENING THERMAL RIDGE/CAPPING WILL ALLOW FOR INITIATION
OF SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN THE 3PM-5PM TIME
FRAME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH (MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG), BUT REMAIN ON THE FAR S PERIPHERY
OF STRONGER 500MB FLOW - RESULTING IN RATHER MEAGER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF ONLY 25-30KT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO PULSING STRONG TO
LOW-END SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AROUND 60 MPH AND QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL. THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VECTOR WILL BE MOSTLY PARALLEL TO THE STRONG LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE/LINEAR FORCING - SUGGESTING RATHER QUICK
UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A LINE WITH PERHAPS SOME BRIEF EMBEDDED
SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS - ESP. IN THE FIRST 1-2HRS. THIS ALSO
SUGGESTS SOME "TRAINING" POTENTIAL. GIVEN FORECAST PWATS 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL (WITH CONNECTIONS TO BOTH GULF
AND PACIFIC MOISTURE)...ANY TRAINING THAT DOES OCCUR COULD
QUICKLY CARRY A LOCALIZED HYDRO CONCERN. INDEED, THERE ARE SOME
CAMS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR PEAK RAIN AMOUNTS AROUND 2-4", WHICH
IF IT ALL FALLS IN ONLY A FEW HRS, COULD CAUSE SOME CONCERNS.
FORTUNATELY, THIS SHOULD BE A VERY ISOLATED THREAT AS STORMS
BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINANT AND MOVE ALONG TO THE E/NE. SO BOTTOM
LINE...SPC SLIGHT RISK COVERS THE THREAT/AREA WELL FOR THE 3PM
TO 10PM TIME FRAME, AND WPC ALSO HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA. EXPECT SOME LOW LEVEL JET
AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE OVERNIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED ELEVATED
CONVECTION FURTHER N INTO OTHER AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA,
BUT CONFIDENCE ON EXACT COVERAGE/LOCATION IS ON THE LOWER END.
THIS OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOSTLY/ALL NON-SEVERE.
THE FRONT LOOKS TO TRY AND RETURN NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY - WHICH
WOULD TYPICALLY RAISE SOME EYEBROWS FOR ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S N OF THE FRONT, AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO
THE S. HOWEVER, 700-500MB FLOW IS REALLY LACKING - GENERALLY
ONLY ABOUT 15-25KT. SO DESPITE DECENT VEERING IN THE LOWEST 3KM,
THE OVERALL DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6KM) IS ONLY ABOUT 20-25KT. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO SOMEWHAT MARGINAL AT 6.5-7.5 C/KM.
THUS, THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK ONLY SHOWING A "MARGINAL RISK" SEEMS
APPROPRIATE AT THIS TIME WITH THREATS LIMITED TO LOCALIZED
DOWNBURSTS AND PERHAPS SOME INSTANCES OF NICKEL-QUARTER HAIL.
EPS PWAT ANOMALIES MAX OUT OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA IN THE 2.5-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS, SO WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM ONE BEHIND THE RETREATING WARM
FRONT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT - WITH TIMING, COVERAGE,
PLACEMENT LIKELY PRETTY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT (SUN. NIGHT) ALONG
A DRY LINE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY A BIT STRONGER WITH
EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR (ESP. N/W OF THE TRI-CITIES), BUT
REALLY LACK ON MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SO AGAIN, THE SPC DAY 3
"MARGINAL RISK" SEEMS QUITE REASONABLE. BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY COULD ULTIMATELY DEVELOP SOME MESOSCALE CORRIDORS OF
ENHANCED SEVERE PARAMETERS - BUT THE BROADER PICTURE DOESN'T
SEEM TO REVEAL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HAS ITS TYPICAL DROP-OFF FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR BEYOND DAY 3-4...BUT GENERAL TRENDS SUGGEST A "DRIER"
PERIOD THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, AND MAYBE EVEN SATURDAY - BUT OF
COURSE THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. SHOULD ALSO SEE ANOTHER WARMUP
OF HIGHS BACK INTO WIDESPREAD 90S AND POSSIBLY LOW 100S IN
FAVORED WARM SPOTS IN OUR SW. WINDS WON'T BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THIS WEEKEND, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL BACK INTO
MORE NORMAL 60S TO LOWER 70S. ENSEMBLES HINT AT ANOTHER WEAK
UPPER TROUGH/SFC FRONT PASSAGE IN THE DAYS 6-8 TIME FRAME, WHICH
IS SHAPING UP TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: ONGOING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS), WIND
SHIFT FROM S TO NW WITH A COLD FRONT NEXT FEW HOURS, FOLLOWED
BY POTENTIAL BOUTS OF MVFR CIGS LATER THIS MORNING AND AGAIN MON
NIGHT.
SFC COLD FRONT REMAINS JUST NW OF THE TERMINALS AS OF 06Z, SO
STRONG SRLY SFC WINDS AND LLWS (THANKS TO 50-55KT LLJ SAMPLED ON
UEX VAD) WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. HOWEVER, BY
AROUND 07-09Z, EXPECT THE SFC FRONT TO SWING THROUGH BOTH TAF
SITES, RESULTING IN A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AND VARIABLE
DIRECTION, BEFORE SWITCHING TO MAINLY NNW-N THROUGH SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS
AHEAD OF IT. MAINTAINED SOME PROB30S FOR -TSRA THROUGH 12Z, BUT
BECOMING INCREASINGLY QUESTIONABLE THIS WILL PAN OUT PER LATEST
HRRR TRENDS. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ALONG, AND ESP BEHIND THE
FRONT, TO AROUND 3-4K FT BY SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
FOR MONDAY-MONDAY EVE: FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH INCREASINGLY DEEPER CAA PERHAPS SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS FROM MID AM THROUGH EARLY AFTN. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
SHWRS, EITHER...BUT ANY RENEWED CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AT LEAST LATE AFTN, MAYBE EVEN EARLY EVENING. INITIAL CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WELL SE OF THE TERMINALS, BUT OUTFLOW FROM
THIS ACTIVITY, COMBINED WITH INCR LLJ, COULD SUPPORT CONVECTION
FURTHER N AS TIME GOES BY MON EVE. ONLY PROB30S FOR NOW GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/COVERAGE. WINDS WILL TURN FROM N TO NE
THROUGH THE DAY AND REMAIN MODESTLY BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET
MON EVE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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