348
FXUS63 KGID 242046
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
346 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WILL BE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
- ON AND OFF AGAIN RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE MIDWEST AND THE
NORTHEAST. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE
COUNTRY. A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH IS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA YESTERDAY EXTENDS FROM SOUTHWEST
KANSAS TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS LINE AND MOVING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AND
NORTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE
UPPER 80S. CAPE VALUES ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2,000 TO 3,000 J/KG BY THIS
EVENING. AN INCREASE IN LIFT WILL BE PRESENT THIS EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
ONLY GET UP TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WHICH WILL LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LAPSE RATES WHICH WILL BE
FAIRLY LOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS A THREAT OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY MORNING, MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA.
AN ADDITIONAL LINE OF CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THIS
AREA (MAINLY ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE TRI-CITIES) EITHER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. CAPE VALUES WILL
BE FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE OR TWO PASSING
OVERHEAD/NEARBY. LAPSE RATES AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE LIMITING FACTORS
IN SEVERE POTENTIAL. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW
60S TO LOW/MID 70S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, CENTRAL PLAINS, AND MIDWEST WILL MOVE INTO
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ONLY RESULT IN
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONT ON
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S TO
UPPER 60S. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HEAT UP INTO THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
LOW/MID 60S TO LOW 70S. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASING (UP TO AROUND 60%
SUNDAY EVENING). HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL AT LEAST 22Z AND POSSIBLY UNTIL
02Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BEGIN AROUND 23Z/00Z UNTIL AROUND
02Z. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND
05Z/06Z TO 09Z/10Z. LOW CEILINGS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED FROM 05Z/06Z
TO 14Z/16Z. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE VARIABLE UNTIL AROUND 15Z WHEN
THEY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. FOG IS POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AROUND 09Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 13Z-15Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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