943
FXUS63 KGID 252126
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
426 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THIS EVENING FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST TO NORTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
BEAVER CITY TO GRAND ISLAND TO SILVER CREEK, NEBRASKA. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN YESTERDAY FELL ACROSS SHERMAN AND VALLEY
COUNTIES, AND THIS AREA WILL BE PARTICULARLY PRONE TO FLOODING
LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL (ESPECIALLY WIND GUSTS 60+ MPH) EXPECTED THROUGH
AROUND 10 PM CDT.
- A BRIEF DIP IN AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR CLIMO (MID 80S) IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SATURDAY.
- WHILE PERIODIC, MAINLY SMALL, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING, THE OVERALL
FORECAST LOOKS MUCH DRIER NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
JUST UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA. JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND INTENSE
WINDS OBSERVED IN SPOTS. THESE STORMS ARE BEING FUELED BY 2-3K
JOULES OF CAPE, AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL, WHICH MAY IN TURN CONTRIBUTE TO WIND GUST POTENTIAL
FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS AIDING IN DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THAT SAID, MOST CELLS WILL LIKELY HAVE
TROUBLE ORGANIZING GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, SO SEVERE
WINDS (AND LESS-SO HAIL) WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH AROUND
10 PM.
AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, STORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME NON-SEVERE, ALTHOUGH THE FLOODING RISK MAY
INCREASE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS FROM THIS EVENINGS AND YESTERDAYS STORMS - WITH A SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION TRANSITIONING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS THEN
EXPECTED TO MERGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHERE THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT BEFORE
EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE LOCAL AREA FOR FRIDAY, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PEAK ON SATURDAY, WHEN A
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT PEAKS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THEN PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, EXPECT MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ROLLING OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS TO BRING ADDITIONAL SMALL AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID-WEEK, BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EVENTUALLY RE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHRAS AND TSRAS...BEGINNING DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS (KEAR) AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS (BOTH KEAR AND KGRI). THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
A WIND SHIFT AT BOTH SITES, WITH A SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WINDS
OVERTAKING KEAR AROUND 26/00Z AND REACHING KGRI BY AROUND
26/02-03Z. COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY, AND DESPITE THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHRAS/TSRAS DURING
THE DAY, DECIDED NOT TO INCLUDE THIS MENTION IN EITHER TAF FOR
THE TIME BEING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
RECENT RAINFALL HAS LED TO SATURATED SOILS ACROSS MAINLY
NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS EXPECTED TO FALL ON
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED SPOTS, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE - MAINLY ACROSS OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES. FOR THIS REASON, A FLOOD WATCH WAS ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY TO COVER THE MOST FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>048-
060>062-072-073-082.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
HYDROLOGY...ROSSI
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