715
FXUS63 KGID 260556
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1256 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING/LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN OVERNIGHT FOR
MUCH OF MAINLY OUR NEBRASKA FORECAST AREA. A FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE MAJORITY (ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST
FEW COUNTIES) OF OUR NEBRASKA FORECAST AREA THROUGH 7 AM.
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL (ESPECIALLY WIND GUSTS 60+ MPH) EXPECTED THROUGH
AROUND 10 PM CDT.
- A BRIEF DIP IN AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR CLIMO (MID 80S) IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
SATURDAY.
- WHILE PERIODIC, MAINLY SMALL, CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST BEGINNING SATURDAY EVENING, THE OVERALL
FORECAST LOOKS MUCH DRIER NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
-- QUICK UPDATE ON LATEST/RECENT TRENDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT:
- THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS CANCELLED GENERALLY 1-2
HOURS EARLY FOR OUR AFFECTED COUNTIES. EARLY STORMS BRIEFLY
PRODUCED SOME LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER (HIGHLIGHTED BY SOME
WIND DAMAGE IN KEARNEY PER KNOWN REPORTS), BUT POOR LAPSE
RATES AND OUTFLOW GETTING OUT AHEAD OF UPDRAFTS THEN LED TO A
STEADY WEAKENING TREND.
- BY FAR OUR MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT IS/WILL BE
AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING. BASED ON LATEST
TRENDS FROM ESPECIALLY HRRR, THE FLOOD WATCH (VALID THROUGH 7
AM) WAS EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL EXCEPT A FEW OF OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES, AS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA
COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1-4" OF CUMULATIVE RAIN SPANNING
ROUGHLY THE SUNSET-SUNRISE TIME FRAME. FORTUNATELY (AT LEAST
SO FAR), THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS "AVOIDED" OUR MOST FLOODING-
SENSITIVE AREAS AROUND SHERMAN/SOUTHERN VALLEY COUNTIES THAT
SAW THE OVERALL- HEAVIEST RAIN DURING THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
JUST UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA. JUST AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH SOME SMALL HAIL AND INTENSE
WINDS OBSERVED IN SPOTS. THESE STORMS ARE BEING FUELED BY 2-3K
JOULES OF CAPE, AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL, WHICH MAY IN TURN CONTRIBUTE TO WIND GUST POTENTIAL
FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING IN DOWNDRAFTS AIDING IN DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER. THAT SAID, MOST CELLS WILL LIKELY HAVE
TROUBLE ORGANIZING GIVEN THE WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT, SO SEVERE
WINDS (AND LESS-SO HAIL) WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH AROUND
10 PM.
AS WE THEN TRANSITION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, STORMS WILL
LIKELY BECOME NON-SEVERE, ALTHOUGH THE FLOODING RISK MAY
INCREASE AS STORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS FROM THIS EVENINGS AND YESTERDAYS STORMS - WITH A SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION TRANSITIONING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS THEN
EXPECTED TO MERGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
FILL IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WHERE THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT BEFORE
EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO
THE LOCAL AREA FOR FRIDAY, AS HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE
LOW TO MID 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PEAK ON SATURDAY, WHEN A
WEAK RIDGE ALOFT PEAKS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON HEAT
INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES ANTICIPATED SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH ONLY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT THEN PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, EXPECT MULTIPLE WEAK DISTURBANCES ROLLING OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS TO BRING ADDITIONAL SMALL AND PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MID-WEEK, BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EVENTUALLY RE-AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNFICANT WEATHER: MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS IN
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAWN.
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IMPACTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH AROUND 12-14Z. EXPECT FAIRLY CONTINUOUS SHWRS AT BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH TSTMS BEING MORE OFF AND ON/TEMPORARY. CIGS
COULD BE ALL OVER THE PLACE, BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERAL TREND TO MAINLY MVFR TO IFR IN THE 08-14Z TIME FRAME, AT
LEAST...PERHAPS UNTIL CLOSER TO 17Z. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE ONGOING
CONVECTION, CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH ON THESE MODEL
TRENDS. WINDS WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE, AS WELL, BUT GENERALLY
PRETTY LIGHT OUTSIDE OF BRIEF, HEAVIER CORES.
EXPECT SOME DECREASE TO CLOUD COVER LATE AM/MIDDAY, THOUGH SOME
SCT TO BKN STRATOCU COULD CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN ALONG AND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM S TO SW TO NW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT REMAIN LIGHT AT 5-8KT. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LGT AND VRBL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. GIVEN
THE COPIOUS RAINFALL AND SAID WINDS, COULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
LATE THU EVE/NIGHT, BUT WILL TACKLE THIS IN FUTURE TAFS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>076-082>084.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...THIES
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