096
FXUS63 KGID 262032
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
332 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING FROM YESTERDAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT, IT MAY
TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR SOME OF THE MOST IMPACTED AREAS TO
COMPLETELY IMPROVE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
- DESPITE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES AND A VERY SMALL
CHANCE NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES FRIDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE
AREA WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
- AFTER A HOT AND MUGGY SATURDAY (HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY
TOP 100) WITH ONLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
- THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PERIOD WILL COME
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER A HOT
WEEKEND, THIS FRONT SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSE TO
CLIMO NEXT WEEK (MID TO UPPER 80S) WITH PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MODELS KEEP
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT ACROSS
THE FLOOD AFFECTED AREAS.
CLEARING SKIES, FALLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT, WHICH COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED DEW POINTS AND SATURATED SOILS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY,
AND UPPED THE FOG WORDING IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND HWO. WHILE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED, THE 18Z HRRR
KEEPS DENSE FOG COVERAGE LIMITED TO ONLY POCKETS OF THE LOCAL
AREA, SO HELD OFF ON ANY SORT OF HEADLINE FOR THE TIME BEING.
THAT SAID, THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO WAKE
UP TO A FOGGY START ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY, THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA, SPARKING
SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION. WHILE NOT A SURE THING THAT THIS
CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER BY THE TIME IT REACHES CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, MAINTAINED SOME SMALL POPS FOR A FEW HOURS FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES, WITH MOST AREAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A BETTER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
THEN BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH EVEN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS VALLEY AND GREELEY
COUNTIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN COME
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN REACHES THE LOCAL AREA
AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE PEAK
INTENSITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. WHILE THIS HEAT WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSE AS THE LAST HEAT WAVE, IT MAY BE MORE STIFLING, AS
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY HIGHER AS WELL.
THANKFULLY, THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP "COOL"
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, PERIODIC MAINLY SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY IN A FAIRLY MESSY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT KGRI FOR ABOUT ONE MORE
HOUR, BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS BECOME DOMINANT AT BOTH TERMINALS
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY
NORTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 15 KTS...RAPIDLY DIMINISHING BY
EARLY EVENING AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INDUCE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS LATE IN
THE NIGHT, WHICH COMBINED WITH CLEAR SKIES, SATURATED SOILS AND
ELEVATED DEWPOINTS, WILL LIKELY RESULT IN FOG...POTENTIALLY
DENSE TOWARDS DAYBREAK. DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY, KEPT WORST
CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE TIME BEING, BUT PREVAILING
LIFR VSBYS/CIGS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THIS FOG SHOULD NOT
STICK AROUND LONG INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY, WITH VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AGAIN BECOMING PREDOMINANT BY 27/16Z AT THE LATEST.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...THIES
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