402
FXUS63 KGID 270524
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING FROM WED NIGHT-THURS AM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO IMPACT PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THIS AREA
TONIGHT, IT MAY TAKE SEVERAL DAYS FOR SOME OF THE MOST
IMPACTED AREAS TO COMPLETELY IMPROVE. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD WARNING/ADVISORY STATEMENTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
- AT LEAST PATCHY FOG PROBABLE LATE TONIGHT-EARLY FRI AM, BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON IT BECOMING WIDESPREAD AND/OR DENSE.
- DESPITE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF
THE TRI CITIES FRIDAY NIGHT, MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
- AFTER A HOT AND MUGGY SATURDAY (HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY
TOP 100) WITH ONLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES, THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, AND A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
- THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PERIOD WILL COME
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER A HOT
WEEKEND, THIS FRONT SHOULD COOL TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSE TO
CLIMO NEXT WEEK (MID TO UPPER 80S) WITH PERIODIC SMALL CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. WHILE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK EDGE OF THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS, MODELS KEEP
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WELL EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, AND NO
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT ACROSS
THE FLOOD AFFECTED AREAS.
CLEARING SKIES, FALLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ARE THEN ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT, WHICH COMBINED WITH
ELEVATED DEW POINTS AND SATURATED SOILS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY,
AND UPPED THE FOG WORDING IN THE CURRENT FORECAST AND HWO. WHILE
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED, THE 18Z HRRR
KEEPS DENSE FOG COVERAGE LIMITED TO ONLY POCKETS OF THE LOCAL
AREA, SO HELD OFF ON ANY SORT OF HEADLINE FOR THE TIME BEING.
THAT SAID, THE EVENING SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO WAKE
UP TO A FOGGY START ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
AS WE TRANSITION INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY, THE NEXT UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA, SPARKING
SOME HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION. WHILE NOT A SURE THING THAT THIS
CONVECTION WILL HOLD TOGETHER BY THE TIME IT REACHES CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, MAINTAINED SOME SMALL POPS FOR A FEW HOURS FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES, WITH MOST AREAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY. A BETTER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
THEN BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MOST OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH EVEN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEING ADVERTISED ACROSS VALLEY AND GREELEY
COUNTIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN COME
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN REACHES THE LOCAL AREA
AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE PEAK
INTENSITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. WHILE THIS HEAT WILL NOT BE AS
INTENSE AS THE LAST HEAT WAVE, IT MAY BE MORE STIFLING, AS
WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND DEWPOINTS LIKELY HIGHER AS WELL.
THANKFULLY, THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP "COOL"
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO CLIMO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, PERIODIC MAINLY SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY IN A FAIRLY MESSY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
FOG COULD DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE, THOUGH THE OVERALL BEST
CHANCES TO SEE FOG ARE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP, SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THOUGH AGAIN HOW LOW VISIBILITY DOES GET IS ALSO UNCERTAIN.
GIVEN THE OVERALL LOWER MODEL SUPPORT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT HAVE
OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME, THOUGH
IF FOG DOES LOOK TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD AN AMENDMENT WILL BE
NEEDED. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION FOR FOG WITH A 6SM BR FEW004
AT BOTH KGRI AND KEAR. ANY FOG THAT DOES OCCUR WILL DISSIPATE BY
THE MID MORNING HOURS, WITH ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
10KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS, DECREASING BELOW 10KTS BY
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...DAVIS
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