190
FXUS63 KGID 281957
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
257 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 90S
TO AROUND 102 DEGREES.
- THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORMS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING IS LOW (15% TO AROUND 30%).
- STORMS (SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE) ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. POST FRONTAL STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE (15% TO 60% CHANCE) SUNDAY NIGHT.
- MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AREAWIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ARE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN
PART OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S
TO AROUND 102 DEGREES. WINDS WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID 60S TO LOW 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO NEBRASKA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONT THIS EVENING. THE PATH AND EVOLUTION OF THESE STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN. ONE HI-RES MODEL SHOWS THE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AND MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. OTHER MODELS SHOW THE STORMS EITHER GOING AROUND OR
WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE THEY REACH THE FORECAST AREA. IF
STORMS REACH THE AREA, THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE
DUE TO HIGH CAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE HINDERING FACTOR IN
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE WIND SHEAR WHICH WILL LIKELY ONLY GET UP TO
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT MOST AND WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM CANADA TO NEBRASKA ON SUNDAY WITH A
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THIS FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE
GENERALLY SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND
POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE
MAY ALSO BE POST FRONTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CAPE AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT BUT WIND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL WITH VALUES UP
TO AROUND 30 KNOTS. STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DUE TO THE ABOVE
MENTIONED CONDITIONS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORM DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL IN PART DEPEND ON WHAT OCCURS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IF A STORM COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, THE SAME AREAS
ARE LESS LIKELY TO RECEIVE STORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO THE MID/UPPER
90S. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
THE UPPER 60S.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON MONDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S TO THE LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID/UPPER 60S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO
LOW/MID 70S. MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THEN PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE BY FRIDAY NIGHT (UP TO 40% CHANCE) WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING AND BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. WINDS WILL
THEN WEAKEN EVEN MORE AND BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY
12Z. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY 15Z. LOW CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE BEGINNING AROUND 07Z-09Z AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND
16Z-18Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM AROUND 06Z TO 15Z
BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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