571
FXUS63 KGID 290910
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
410 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING, BRINGING RAIN, GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
- A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION. THE COOLDOWN WILL BE SHORT-LIVED,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 90S BY MID-WEEK.
- A BREAKDOWN IN THE PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR AREA. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (20-30%) WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HWY 81 THIS MORNING. THERE IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHERN
CONVECTION, WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH LOUP CITY AND ST.
PAUL. THIS COULD KICK OFF A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THIS
MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80, WHERE THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
COME THROUGH FIRST. AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE CAN EXPECT
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-80S TO MID-90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 103 DEGREES.
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
BEHIND IT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS POSSIBLE.
THE ABILITY FOR THESE STORMS TO DEVELOP WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
MORNING CONVECTION AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD THE
PRECIPITATION HANG ON THROUGH THE MORNING AS CURRENTLY FORECAST,
THIS COULD HELP LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHTTIME WAVE OF STORMS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE COLD FRONT WILL BE LATER THIS
EVENING, IMPACTING STORM CHANCES. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN DOING A GOOD
JOB OF COMING INTO AGREEMENT ON WHERE STORMS WILL IMPACT AND TIMING.
THE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE CANADIAN AND HRRR WITH THE COLD FRONT
PROJECTED TO BE CUTTING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS WHEN STORMS FIRE UP.
SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TO MANY.
SUNDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-80S TO THE NORTH TO THE MID-90S
IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. MONDAY'S FORECAST HAS HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID-80S IN THE NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
TUESDAY, THE AREA COMES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. DRYING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S. SOUTH WINDS WILL BE
AROUND 5-15MPH. TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A
FEW STORMS FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. HEAT IS
SET TO RETURN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-90S. HEADING INTO FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN. A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION, BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME
HOURS, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTH DURING HTE
MORNING. AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING/NIGHT. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF
THE PERIOD, DUE IN PART TO WAITING TO SEE WHAT TONIGHT'S
CONVECTION DOES. RIGHT NOW, MODELS ARE SHOWING THE WORST OF ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEKESSER
AVIATION...WEKESSER
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