139
FXUS63 KGID 300019
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
719 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MAINLY
AFTER 11 PM TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY MON AM. DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.
- AFTER MONDAY MORNING, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (15% TO 30%) OF
STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND AN EVEN HIGHER CHANCE
(AROUND 30% TO 50%) OF STORMS FRIDAY EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES COOL OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MONDAY THEN
WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER CANADA EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO NEBRASKA.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH IS POSITIONED ACROSS/NEAR
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
AND SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 80S
TO THE MID 90S. THIS FRONT MAY DROP SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING BUT WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP (AROUND A 20% TO 30% CHANCE) ALONG
THIS FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH CAPE AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRESENT BUT WIND SHEAR WILL BE
LACKING WITH VALUES GETTING UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THESE
CONDITIONS MAY STILL RESULT IN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
MAINLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
SUFFICIENT CAPE, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
SHOWING THE STORMS ARRIVING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM FOR
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES WITH THE COMPLEX
CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL;
HOWEVER, SOME ISOLATED HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE MAY OCCUR
INITIALLY WITH THESE STORMS. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
AREAS WITH SATURATED SOILS FROM RECENT RAINFALL. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL INTO THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. UPPER RIDGING WILL MOSTLY BE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. LOW
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING OVERHEAD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR OR A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN THOSE ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE
STRONGER OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30
MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WILL RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES (AROUND 30% TO 50%) OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA.
THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 90S ON SATURDAY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (15% TO 35%) WILL
LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 719 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AND THUNDERSTORM-FREE
CONDITIONS THROUGH A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD (PARTICULARLY
THESE FIRST 6 HOURS THIS EVENING AND THE FINAL 6 HOURS MONDAY
AFTERNOON). HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE 12 HOURS (06-18Z)
FEATURE CONCERNS FOR NOT ONLY A ROUND OF POTENTIALLY
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ALSO AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF
SUB-VFR CEILING. OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INFLUENCES,
WINDS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR CONCERN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD AT-OR-BELOW 13KT.
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL:
ALTHOUGH THE FINER DETAILS ARE FAR FROM A "SURE THING",
CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY INCREASING THAT A COMPLEX OR LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PASS THROUGH BOTH KEAR/KGRI EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO JUSTIFY ANY
PREVAILING THUNDERSTORM GROUPS, HAVE "UPGRADED" FROM PROB30 TO
TEMPO...CURRENTLY FOCUSED 06-10Z KEAR/07-11Z KGRI. ALTHOUGH NOT
A CERTAINTLY, STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 45-55KT, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
RESULTANT SUB-VFR VISIBILITY AND POSSIBLY CEILING.
SPEAKING OF CEILING, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING CONVECTION, THERE ARE "MIXED SIGNALS" IN VARIOUS
MODELS/GUIDANCE REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-VFR CEILING
MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF (POSSIBLY AT LEAST A
FEW HOURS?) MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILING CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED
OUT, JUST DON'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE PREVAILING MVFR
IN TAFS AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL "HINT" AT IT WITH SCT LOWER CLOUD
GROUPS. IF SUB-VFR CEILING DOES INDEED DEVELOP, CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH IT WOULD LIFT TO VFR AND/OR SCATTER OUT BY 17Z.
- WIND DETAILS:
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A BRIEF
BLAST OF 45-55KT WINDS DEPENDING ON THEIR INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, WINDS WILL BE
MODESTLY-BREEZY AT MOST. STARTING OFF THIS EVENING,
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES UNDER 10KT WILL PREVAIL. IN THE WAKE OF
ANY LATE-NIGHT CONVECTION, WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY RE-ESTABLISH
FROM A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD, WITH THE STEADIEST SPEEDS AFTER 15Z (SUSTAINED
AROUND 13KT/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT).
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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