199
FXUS63 KGID 300830
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
330 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
THE TWO LINES OF STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 90S AROUND MID-WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS.
- THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS THIS
EVENING. THE LINE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BRINGING HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH IT INTO THE AREA. A SECOND
LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER FURNAS COUNTY AND IS STARTING
TO EXPAND INTO NORTHWESTERN HARLAN COUNTY. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL SIX OF OUR
KANSAS COUNTIES AND MOST OF OUR COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 6AM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
AS OF 3:15AM, TWO LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA. THESE STORMS HAVE GENERATED WIND GUSTS OF 50-70MPH AND
SOME HAIL. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, BRINGING CHANCES FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN EXITING THE AREA BY MID-MORNING.
TODAY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES. NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL SET UP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
EXITING UPPER TROUGH. EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NEAR SEASONAL,
RANGING FROM THE LOW 80S FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND AREAS NORTHWARD.
TO THE SOUTH, LOW TO MID-80S ARE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE MID-50S TO MID-60S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE AREA REMAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST. EXPECT A THREE-DDAY GRADUAL WARMING TREND
BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY THURSDAY,
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID-90S. TUESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
FRIDAY, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST, EVENTUALLY EXITING OVER IOWA AND
MINNESOTA. THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MODELS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BRINGS OUR
NEXT BEST CHANCE (40- 60%) AT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE 80S. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY AND THUNDERSTORM-FREE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD (PARTICULARLY THE
FINAL 12 HOURS MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING). HOWEVER, PORTIONS OF
THE FIRST 12 HOURS (06-18Z) FEATURE CONCERNS FOR NOT ONLY A
ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ALSO
PERHAPS AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF SUB-VFR CEILING. OUTSIDE OF ANY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW INFLUENCES, WINDS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR
CONCERN WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AT-OR-
BELOW 13KT.
- CEILING/VISIBILITY/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL:
AS OF THIS WRITING, THE LEADING EDGE OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IS STILL ABOUT 110-140 MILES NORTHWEST OF KGRI/KEAR, AND IS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING. THE EXACT TIMING/INTENSITY OF THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS BY FAR THE MAIN SHORT-TERM ISSUE. FOR
NOW, HAVE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TEMPO GROUPS TO 07-10Z KEAR/08-11Z
KGRI TO CAPTURE THE MAIN 3-HOUR "WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY".
ALTHOUGH NOT A CERTAINTLY, STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 45-55KT, BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND RESULTANT SUB-VFR VISIBILITY AND POSSIBLY CEILING.
SPEAKING OF CEILING, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING CONVECTION, THERE ARE STILL "MIXED SIGNALS" IN
VARIOUS MODELS/GUIDANCE REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD OF SUB-VFR
CEILING MONDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH AT LEAST BRIEF (POSSIBLY AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS?) MVFR OR EVEN IFR CEILING CANNOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT, STILL DON'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE
PREVAILING MVFR IN TAFS AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
"HINT" AT IT WITH SCT LOWER CLOUD GROUPS. IF SUB-VFR CEILING
DOES INDEED DEVELOP, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IT WOULD LIFT TO
VFR AND/OR SCATTER OUT BY 17Z.
- WIND DETAILS:
OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A BRIEF
BLAST OF 45-55KT WINDS DEPENDING ON THEIR INTENSITY. HOWEVER,
OUTSIDE OF ANY POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, WINDS WILL BE
MODESTLY-BREEZY AT WORST. RIGHT OUT OF THE GATE, LIGHT,
GENERALLY EASTERLY BREEZES PREVAIL. ONCE CONVECTION VACATES,
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY RE-ESTABLISH FROM A NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, WITH THE STEADIEST SPEEDS
16-00Z (SUSTAINED AROUND 13KT/GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20KT). LATE IN
THE PERIOD MONDAY EVENING, A VERY LIGHT/VARIABLE DIRECTION
REGIME SETTLES IN UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...WEKESSER
DISCUSSION...WEKESSER
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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