603
FXUS63 KGID 012101
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
401 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW (5%) CHANCE FOR A FEW WIND GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 60 MPH...PARTICULARLY IN WESTERN AREAS.
- DRY AND WARM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE
(20%) FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY
(FRIDAY). OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER CO/WY WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
BASED ON RECENT CAMS, THIS ACTIVITY WOULD APPROACH WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AROUND 10-11PM, BUT SHOULD BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THAT SAID, THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED SEVERE
WINDS AS THEY DISSIPATE. THERE ARE VARYING SOLUTIONS ON HOW FAR
EASTWARD THIS THREAT EXTENDS, BUT THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO
BE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO ORD, NE.
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING (MAINLY NORTH OF I-80), BUT THIS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY QUIET AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LOW CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE
LATE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON JULY 4TH. SCATTERED CONVECTION
COULD ACTUALLY BEGIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA, LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS ON THE LOWER
END (GENERALLY 15-25KTS), SO A WIDESPREAD, ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT A FEW LOCALIZED STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY, SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
(1.50-2.00") COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ISSUES.
THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS A LITTLE QUIETER, BUT THERE
ARE STILL OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS A SERIES OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER A WARM DAY ON
SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES DIP SLIGHTLY INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS
ON SUNDAY/MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH-CONFIDENCE (95%) IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SHOULD TRACK
NORTH AND WEST OF GRI/EAR.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...MANGELS
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