831  
FXUS63 KGID 012035  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
335 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- HAZY SKIES FROM WILDFIRE SMOKE HAS REDUCED AIR QUALITY ACROSS  
THE FULL AREA INTO UNHEALTHY LEVELS FOR THE MOST SENSITIVE  
GROUPS. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR NEBRASKA  
AREA THROUGH 5PM SATURDAY.  
 
- A FEW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY  
AFTER MIDNIGHT (15-30%) WITH INTERMITTENT CHANCES BEGINNING  
SATURDAY NIGHT (40-50%) AND LASTING INTO PORTIONS OF SUNDAY  
(15-30%) AND SUNDAY NIGHT (20-45%).  
 
- THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW THIS WEEKEND WITH THE BEST  
POTENTIAL TOWARDS OUR WESTERN EDGE/FRINGES (CLOSER TO THE  
DIRECTION STORMS WILL BE COMING FROM). GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.  
 
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S  
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WARMING UP THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT  
WEEK. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE THE FULL 90S AGAIN BY THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
 
   
..TONIGHT
 
 
HAZY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON FROM CANADIAN BASED WILDFIRE SMOKE HAS  
INFILTRATED INTO A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY. THIS PLUME OF  
SMOKE HAS DROPPED AIR QUALITY INTO UNHEALTHY LEVELS FOR THE MORE  
SENSITIVE GROUPS (PM 2.5 AQI >100). THIS PLUME CURRENTLY STRETCHES DOWN  
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS AND DOWN INTO FAR  
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS NO GREATER THAN  
10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED SMOKE  
BACK INTO THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY. SINCE AQI 2.5PM VALUES  
(PARTICULATE MATER) ROSE ABOVE 40 UG/M^3 AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON,  
CONFIDENCE INCREASED ENOUGH TO EXTENDED AND EXPAND THE AIR QUALITY  
ALERT FOR ALL OF OUR NEBRASKA AREAS THROUGH 5PM SATURDAY. PLEASE  
REFER TO THE ALERT STATEMENT FOR MORE INFORMATION.  
 
BESIDES THE SMOKE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY MINIMAL THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS, HOWEVER, SHOULD STILL FIRE  
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS & EASTERN ROCKIES REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT,  
POTENTIALLY LANDING INTO A FEW OF OUR WESTERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF  
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. ANY STORMS THAT DOES KEEP ITS INTEGRITY  
TOGETHER SHOULN'T MAKE IT TO OUR WESTERN EDGE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS AS INSTABILITY AS  
WELL AS LAPSE RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO FAVORABLE AT THIS  
TIME OF NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL BE PRESENT  
IN A FEW OF THE MORE STRONGER STORMS. IN GENERAL, STORM COVERAGE  
SHOULD BE ON THE MORE MINIMAL SIDE OF THINGS AS THIS CLUSTER OF  
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE "SHOWERY" THAN ANYTHING ELSE. POPS AS  
RESULT HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT 30% GIVEN THEIR THE EXPECTED SCATTERED TO  
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS.  
 
   
..SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
 
 
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS STAYING BETWEEN THE MID 70S AND MID 80S.  
DESPITE BROAD WEAK SOUTHERLIES (USUALLY A WARM AIR ADVECTING  
PATTERN), MOSTLY CLOUDS SKIES SHOULD BLOCK OUT THE SUN ENOUGH TO  
LIMIT AFTERNOON WARMING. IN ADDITION, A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY ALSO  
HELP TO LIMIT THE HEAT TO A DEGREE, ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY.  
 
SOME PV ADVECTION IN THE UPPER-LEVELS WILL HELP LEAD TO SOME MID TO  
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS, HELPING TO ESTABLISH A FEW SHORTWAVE  
DISTURBANCES. THESE DISTURBANCES SHOULD PASS ONE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO INITIALIZE ACROSS A  
FEW WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT (40-50% CHANCES), BECOMING  
WIDESPREAD AND SCATTERED DURING THE MORNING AND DAYTIME SUNDAY (15-  
30% CHANCES). A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS AND SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP  
SUNDAY NIGHT (20-40% CHANCES).  
 
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED AS  
SEASONABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES LIMIT THE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND  
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO A DEGREE. SHEAR IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED  
TO BE ALL THAT SIGNIFICANT AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS REMAINS MORE  
STAGNANT THAN ACTIVE. THE LOW-LEVEL JET COULD HOWEVER, HELP  
INITIALIZE STORMS, SUPPORTING THEM THOUGH THE NIGHT.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT LOOK QUESTIONABLE WITH A  
BUILDING RIDGE PROVIDING NEGATIVE (ANTI-CYCLONIC) VORTICITY  
ADVECTION AND GENERAL SINKING MOTION OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN REBOUND UPWARDS AS  
THIS DOME OF HIGHER PRESSURE EXPANDS IN FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.  
WIND DIRECTIONS WILL PREDOMINANTLY STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST  
WITH MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2025  
 
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:  
 
MVFR VISIBILITIES HAVE STUCK AROUND LONGER THAN USUAL TODAY DUE  
TO SOME CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE. THERE MAY BE A  
BREAK OF MVFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 0-6Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS  
LOWER THAN NORMAL. IT IS EXPECTED FOR THE SMOKE/HAZE IMPACTS TO  
STICK AROUND THROUGH PARTS OF THE NIGHT AND SATURDAY, THOUGH IT  
IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW CONCENTRATED THIS SMOKE WILL STAY OR  
TREND. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BROKEN AND OVERCAST THROUGH A  
MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH BASES NEAR 10,000FT. THERE MAY BE LESS  
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS (FEW TO SCATTERED) BETWEEN 0-4Z.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN ANYTHING  
OTHER THAN A PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW. A FEW STORMS OVERNIGHT WILL  
HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE NEAR OR AROUND THE KEAR/KGRI  
TERMINALS BETWEEN 8-14Z. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS IS  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. WINDS WILL STAY BETWEEN 10-15KTS DURING  
THE DAYTIME AND BELOW 10KTS DURING THE NIGHT AND OUT OF THE  
SOUTHEAST.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...STUMP  
AVIATION...STUMP  
 
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