021
FXUS63 KGID 050552
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1252 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT PLENTY OF
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS REMAIN. MANY HAVE LITTLE/NOTHING
MOVING INTO THE AREA...OTHERS DO HAVE SOME ACTIVITY MAKING IT
FAR ENOUGH EAST TO IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (WEST
OF HWY 281). SHOULD STORMS MAKE THIS FAR EAST, NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION A FEW COULD BE STRONG-SEVERE.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS RETURNS TUESDAY EVENING-NIGHT,
MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG/EAST OF HWY 281...BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH OVERALL COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY.
- THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME IS DRY, AS
RIDGING/WARMING TEMPS ALOFT MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIGHS
INCREASE INTO THE 90S, ESP. FOR THU-FRI...AND SCATTERED HEAT
INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
- THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION, BRINGING ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES AND HIGHS BACK IN
THE 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT MON AUG 4 2025
CURRENTLY...
BEEN AN OVERALL QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA...WITH UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE DATA SHOWING GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
ALOFT, SET UP BETWEEN TROUGHING DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE MO/MS
RIVER VALLEY AND RIDGING EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE AZ/NM/MEX BORDER.
AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
SD CONTINUES TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY OVER EASTERN NE, BUT A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE NERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, THE FORECAST AREA
CONTINUES TO HAVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY, GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH...WITH HIGH PRESSURE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NERN CONUS AND OVERALL WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, KEEPING TEMPS DOWN MORE IN THE LOW-MID 70S...WITH
PLENTY OF SUN ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS AND TEMPS CLIMBING INTO
THE 80S.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR WEST, DRIVEN BY
UPSLOPE FLOW AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE...WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS ACTIVITY BEING THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF DIFFERENCE WITH HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT...WITH MANY SHOWING LITTLE/NOTHING IN THE WAY OF
ACTIVITY MAKING IT THIS FAR EAST. OVERALL FORCING IS ON THE
WEAKER SIDE, BUT WESTERN PORTIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF
THE LLJ, WHERE INCREASED CONVERGENCE COULD HELP CHANCES. KEPT
PRECIP CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE, IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...AND
IF ACTIVITY DOES ACTUALLY MAKE IT IN, THOSE CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY-MID MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY. ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WITH INSTABILITY/SHEAR SHOWN BY MODELS, THAT A
FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG-SEVERE SIDE...AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN IN THE DAY 1
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AREAS.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY, OUTSIDE OF THOSE SMALL CHANCES
IN WESTERN AREAS DURING THE MORNING, THE FORECAST IS DRY.
MODELS SHOW MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER LEVELS,
LARGELY DRIVEN BY A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE SLIDING ALONG THE
US/CAN BORDER. DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A NOTABLE IMPACT ON THE
SURFACE PATTERN, WITH WINDS REMAINING SSERLY EAST OF A LOW
PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CO. MODELS SHOW THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NO
NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS, WHICH REMAIN IN THE MID
80S-LOW 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
DURING THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS, THIS PASSING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...AIDED BY CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EDGE OF AN
INCREASING LLJ (THE NOSE OF THE JET LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED WELL
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA). CHANCES LOOK TO BE MAINLY FOCUSED
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ALONG/EAST OF HWY
281)...BUT JUST HOW FAR SOUTH ALONG THIS TROUGH AXIS ACTIVITY
EXTENDS IS UNCERTAIN, AS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING
HEIGHT RISES/INCREASING MID- LEVEL TEMPS/CAPPING WITH TIME ON
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. CHANCES REMAIN LOW,
MAINLY IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE FORECAST FOR THIS TIMEFRAME IS DRY...BUT NOT A TOTAL SLAM-
DUNK GUARANTEE. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LITTLE
MOVEMENT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT, REMAINING
CENTERED OVER THE AZ/NM/MEXICO BORDER REGION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...WITH NORTH- NORTHEASTWARD EXTENDING RIDGING INTO THE
PLAINS. WITH CONTINUED SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH
ACROSS CANADA AND AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEPER TROUGHING ALONG
EITHER COAST, THE RIDGING DOESN'T MAKE A SIGNIFICANT PUSH
NORTH...LEAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR 'RIDGE- RUNNERS'/SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES TO RIDE AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
HAVE AN IMPACT PRECIP-WISE CLOSER TO/OVER PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO WORKING AGAINST ANY NOTABLE PRECIP-MAKERS IS
MODELS BEING IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING CONTINUED WARMING IN THE
MID- LEVELS/INCREASED CAPPING...WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND 14-15C+
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON CWA-WIDE...THOUGH SOME SHOW FAR NORTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS POTENTIALLY AT TIMES NOT QUITE THAT WARM.
WILL JUST HAVE TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND...BUT FOR NOW THIS PERIOD
IS DRY. WITH THE WARMING AIRMASS, HIGHS ALSO INCREASE...WITH
WED IN THE UPPER 80S- MID 90S, AND THU-FRI 90S CWA-WIDE (AROUND
100 POSSIBLE IN SWRN AREAS). SCATTERED AREAS OF HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100-105 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
UPCOMING WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE PAC NW AND INTO THE NRN ROCKIES FRI
NIGHT-SATURDAY AM...CONTINUING TO PUSH EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH SUNDAY. THOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH FINER
DETAILS OF ITS EVOLUTION WITH TIME...THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION...PROVIDING A BETTER
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND A COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FORECAST HIGHS FOR THE WEEKEND ARE MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THERE'S AN 80-90% CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT, AND ARE NOW GENERALLY AROUND 10-15%, AT BEST, SO HAVE
REMOVED THE PROB30 GROUP FROM EAR. SCT MID TO HIGH CLOUDS AT
TIMES THROUGH MID MORNING SHOULD TRANSITION TO MAINLY CU BASED
BETWEEN 3-5K FT THIS AFTN. CONVECTION CHANCES TUE NIGHT STILL
REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT WHAT CHANCES THERE MAY BE (10-30%) ARE
LARGELY AFTER 06Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL BECOME
BREEZY FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS - MAX SUSTAINED 17-22KT, GUSTS
25-30KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK OFF SOME TUE EVE,
BUT THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AFTER
03Z THANKS TO A 45KT LOW LEVEL JET. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...THIES
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