039
FXUS63 KGID 051732
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1232 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATE BELOW
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMUP CONTINUES. HOT AND HUMID THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F.
- LOW END (20-30%)/CONDITIONAL SHOWER/STORMS CHANCES THIS
MORNING, TONIGHT, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY AND BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS (HIGHS IN 80S, LOWS IN 60S) AS WELL AS OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
THUNDERSTORMS FAILED TO MATERIALIZE LAST EVENING, LIKELY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT RISES AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AWAY
FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO OUR W. MAY STILL SEE A THIN BAND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION AFFECT FAR W ZONES YET THIS MORNING AS A
RESULT OF STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AROUND 700MB. SOME
INDICATIONS OF THIS POTENTIAL EVIDENT WITH ONGOING WEAK
CONVECTION AROUND SIDNEY, NE AND THE BLACK HILLS - DRAW A LINE
AND THAT ROUGHLY COINCIDES WITH THE 700MB THERMAL/MOISTURE
GRADIENT. CAMS ARE STILL MIXED ON THE OVERALL COVERAGE/EXTENT OF
THIS ACTIVITY, AND THE ONES THAT DO DEVELOP DECENT COVERAGE KEEP
THE MAJORITY JUST TO OUR W. SO MAINTAINED THE 20% POPS ALONG THE
HWY 283, BUT OPTED NOT TO INCR OR EXPAND E GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
AND WEAK SIGNAL. WE'LL LIKELY ADD 2-5 DEGREES TO THE HIGHS FOR
MOST SPOTS TODAY, WITH THE GREATEST INCR BEING OVER THE NORTHEAST
ZONES DUE TO YESTERDAY'S PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS. WILL ALSO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE BREEZY TODAY OUT OF THE SSE-SE. EXPECT
SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 MPH, AND GUSTS 25-30 MPH FOR MOST. ONE
OTHER NOTE FOR TODAY: SKIES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE HAZY DUE TO
SMOKE FROM SEVERAL LARGE FIRES THAT HAVE SPARKED IN COLORADO
RECENTLY - AS WELL AS FROM FIRES NEAR THE GRAND CANYON. APPEARS
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THIS SMOKE WILL REMAIN WELL ALOFT, AND NOT
POOL NEAR THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE POOR AIR QUALITY.
THE OVERALL PATTERN - AND FORECAST DIFFICULTIES ASSOCIATED WITH
SUCH AS DETAILED IN THE AFD 24 HOURS AGO - CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER
DAY, OR TWO, BEFORE THE RIDGE REALLY FLEXES IT'S MUSCLES FOR THU
AND FRI. WITH THAT SAID, CAMS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THE PRIMARY AREA OF DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING WILL
BE OVER SD, BEFORE PERHAPS SOME PROPAGATION AND/OR ELEVATED
UPWIND DEVELOPMENT FURTHER S INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. SUSPECT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY TONIGHT WILL REMAIN JUST NE-E OF US
(CLOSER TO MO RIVER), BUT COULD STILL ENVISION SOUTHWARD MOVING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRY TO SPARK ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER W.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL ESTABLISH
ITSELF ON WED. (ESP N OF I-80) - BUT THE CONTINUED LACK OF UPPER
SUPPORT/FORCING AND VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS CASTS CONSIDERABLE
DOUBT THAT ANY STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AND TAP IN TO THAT
INSTABILITY. IF A STORM WERE TO DEVELOP - IT COULD GET QUITE
ROWDY, BUT THIS IS HIGHLY HIGHLY CONDITIONAL.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO MAX OUT IT'S DOMINANCE IN OUR LOCAL
WEATHER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE "RING OF FIRE" RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD SHIFT WELL N/E OF THE AREA (THANKS TO VERY WARM 700MB
TEMPS 14-16C+), AND EXPECT AIR TEMPS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 90S
TO NEAR 100F EACH DAY. SEASONABLY HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S SHOULD YIELD PEAK HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-105F,
JUST SHY OF FORMAL HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SINCE WE'RE WELL
ACQUAINTED WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER BY EARLY AUGUST, THE
INCLINATION WILL TEND TO BE AGAINST A FORMAL HEADLINE ISSUANCE.
BOTH DAYS SHOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME S/SERLY BREEZE TO HELP OUT.
GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING A
STRONG TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
IN THE FRI-SAT TIME FRAME. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH SOME OF
THE DETAILS (I.E. TIMING OF SURFACE COLD FRONT AND EJECTION OF
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVES), BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT TEMPS
WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.
IT'S QUESTIONABLE IF WE'LL GET STORMS ALONG THE ACTUAL SFC
FRONT OR MORE WITH THE ELEVATED FRONT - BUT EITHER WAY WOULD
EXPECT BETTER CHANCES (30-50%) FOR OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ENSEMBLES KEEP TEMPS AROUND
SEASONABLE LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THEN WARM BACK UP
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DESPITE A FEW LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR ACROSS THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW (~15-20%). LATE NIGHT STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.
GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND LLWS TONIGHT WILL BE
THE PRIMARY AVIATION HAZARDS AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CRANKS UP. THE
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PEAK THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
20-25KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35KTS OR BRIEFLY UP TO 40KTS
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL NOT BEGIN TO TRAIL DOWNWARDS UNTIL CLOSER
TO AND JUST AFTER 0-4Z WHEN LLWS BECOMES THE OTHER CONCERN. LLWS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 3-13Z WITH DIRECTIONS OUT OF THE
SOUTH- SOUTHEAST AND UP TO 40-45KS OF SHEAR NEAR 1,000-1,200FT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...STUMP
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