725  
FXUS63 KGID 060955  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
455 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- BECOMING HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PEAK HEAT  
INDICES OF 95-102F TODAY, THEN RISING TO 100-107F FOR THU-FRI.  
 
- LOW END (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE THIS  
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, BETTER CHANCES REMAIN TO  
THE N AND E. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.  
 
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRI EVENING/NIGHT AND LOWERS TEMPERATURES  
AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES (ESP. IN CENTRAL NE) FOR THE WEEKEND,  
THOUGH KS ZONES MAY STILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S. STRONGER PUSH  
OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT FRI EVE/NIGHT  
AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND PERHAPS EVEN  
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN, BUT NOT EXPECTING  
DAYTIME "WASHOUTS" FOR LATE SUMMER WEEKEND PLANS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025  
 
ZONAL MID TO UPPER FLOW IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS,  
NORTH OF STRONG DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NM. A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN  
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, SERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE EAST  
OF SEVERAL LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH  
PLAINS. A SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS NE FROM ONE LOW PRESSURE NEAR CYS  
TO THE NE INTO THE DAKOTAS, ALONG WHICH STORMS FORMED YESTERDAY  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY GREW UPSCALE INTO A LARGE MCS  
THAT IS NOW CENTERED OVER THE SIOUXLAND AREA. A FEW WEAK STORMS  
HAVE TRIED TO FORM ALONG/E OF THE HWY 81 CORRIDOR OVER THE PAST  
HOUR THAT IS TIED TO STRONG WAA ASSOCIATED W/ A VEERING LLJ.  
 
FIRST FORECAST CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE  
AFOREMENTIONED MCS TO BACKBUILD INTO OUR FAR N/NE ZONES TOWARDS  
DAWN TO MID MORNING AS THE LLJ CONTINUES TO VEER AND ASSOCIATED  
OUTFLOW MAINTAINS A SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY. UPWIND CORFIDI VECTORS  
ALSO SUPPORT A CONTINUED SOUTHWARD DRIFT ALONG THE E PERIPHERY  
OF THE UPPER HIGH AND MID LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE. EXTRAPOLATION OF  
THE CURRENT HEADING/SPEED OF THE OUTFLOW BRINGS IT TO OUR N  
BORDER AROUND 11Z, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME SLOWING - SO MAYBE  
CLOSER TO 12Z. IN MY EXPERIENCE, THESE SYSTEMS OFTEN PERSIST  
LONGER ON THE W FLANK, AND THUS OFTEN TO A LOWER LATITUDE, THAN  
WHAT CAMS OFTEN PREDICT. OVERNIGHT HRRR RUNS HAVE ALREADY  
STRUGGLED WITH CORRECT PLACEMENT OF THE SW EXTENT OF THE MCS, SO  
THEY DON'T REALLY GIVE ME A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THEM MOVING  
FORWARD. THEREFORE, HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH MORE OF THE  
CONCEPTUAL MODEL AND KEPT SOME LOW END POPS OVER N-E ZONES  
THROUGH ABOUT 13-14Z. WEAKENING LLJ SHOULD EVENTUALLY "TRANSFER"  
ANY PROPAGATION FROM THE UPWIND VECTORS BACK TO MEAN WIND  
VECTORS AND SHIFT THE WHOLE SYSTEM OFF TO THE E.  
 
NEXT CHALLENGE THEN BECOMES ANTICIPATING PLACEMENT OF ANY  
LINGERING OUTFLOW AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES AND  
THEIR IMPACTS, IF ANY, ON AFTN/EVE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHILE  
THE W FLANK OF THE OUTFLOW COULD MAKE IT INTO N ZONES THIS  
MORNING, THE CURRENT ORIENTATION OF FEATURES SUGGESTS TO ME IT'S  
UNLIKELY ANY OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN OUR AREA INTO LATE  
AFTN. RATHER, THESE BOUNDARIES SHOULD MAKE A NORTHWARD RETURN TO  
AROUND THE NE/SD BORDER. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT IN TERMS OF  
CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOCATION, COVERAGE, TIMING REMAINS  
UNCERTAIN AS CAM SOLUTIONS VARY. HRRR/RRFS SUGGEST SOME ISO-SCAT  
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS 23Z AROUND NORTH CENTRAL  
NE, WHEREAS MOST OF THE OTHER HREF MEMBERS ARE MUCH QUIETER.  
CAPPING WILL BE WEAKER IN THESE AREAS, BUT ANY MID-UPPER LEVEL  
SUPPORT IS NEBULOUS, SO EITHER OUTCOME SEEMS PLAUSIBLE. IF  
STORMS CAN FORM (HIGHLY CONDITIONAL) THEN THERE COULD BE A NON-  
ZERO RISK FOR STRONG ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO AREAS LIKE ORD TO  
FULLERTON AFTER SUNSET AND BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AS SUCH, SPC EDGES  
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MARGINAL RISK INTO THESE AREAS  
TONIGHT. 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS PROBABLY THE MAIN THREAT.  
UNCERTAIN IF ACTIVITY WOULD PERSIST INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT AS  
SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS, BUT BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS, OR NEW  
WAA DEVELOPMENT, WOULD BE FROM NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NE ON THE  
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE (I.E. "RING OF FIRE").  
 
DESPITE THE DISCUSSION THUS FAR ABOUT RAIN CHANCES, THE MAIN  
STORY AND WIDER REACHING IMPACT WILL BE THE INCREASINGLY HOT AND  
HUMID CONDITIONS. EVEN TODAY, AREAS ALONG/S OF NE/KS BORDER  
COULD SEE APPARENT TEMPS RISE INTO THE LOW 10S. HOWEVER, STILL  
APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THIS ROUND OF HEAT/HUMIDITY WILL COME ON  
THU AND FRI. NOT SURPRISINGLY, MODEL BLENDS HAVE TRENDED A BIT  
HIGHER ON TDS (GLOBAL MODELS OFTEN UNDERESTIMATE THE EFFECTS THE  
WIDESPREAD CROPS/IRRIGATION CAN HAVE ON INCREASING NEAR-SURFACE  
MOISTURE), WHICH NOW EDGES A FEW AREAS INTO HEAT ADVISORY  
CRITERIA (105-109F), MAINLY ON FRI. GIVEN THU'S VALUES ARE STILL  
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL FOR CRITERIA AND WE'RE INTO THE "DOG DAYS OF  
SUMMER", FELT BEST TO HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINE, FOR EITHER DAY.  
OVERALL-HIGHEST AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY FOCUS OVER  
TYPICAL AREAS E OF HWY 281, AND ESP. ALONG HWY 81.  
 
NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FRI EVENING.  
UNCERTAIN IF STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO FORM ALONG THE ACTUAL FRONT  
ITSELF IN OUR AREA DUE TO CAPPING FROM IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL  
THERMAL RIDGE (15-18C AT 700MB!). SEEMS UNLIKELY. MORE PLAUSIBLE  
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED  
FRONT IN NORTHERN NE WHERE CAPPING IS WEAKEN, THEN TRACK E/SE.  
AGAIN, THOUGH, DETAILS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN. FRONT THEN LOSES  
SOME STEAM FRI NIGHT AND LOSES DEFINITION (ASSUMING NO OUTFLOW  
REINFORCEMENT) ON SAT. TEMPS WILL COOL FROM FRI INTO THE  
WEEKEND, BUT ESP. KS ZONES COULD STILL REMAIN HOT IN THE LOW-MID  
90S. THE PRESENCE OF A DIFFUSE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AMIDST COOLER  
MID LEVEL TEMPS AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WILL KEEP OFF AND ON RAIN  
CHANCES GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND EVEN INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THOUGH, AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, DON'T THINK  
PEOPLE SHOULD GET TOO WORRIED YET ABOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS BEING  
"WASHOUTS" FOR WEEKEND PLANS AS THERE SHOULD ALSO BE QUITE A BIT  
OF DRY TIME BETWEEN ANY BOUTS OF SCATTERED RAIN. APPEARS A  
SECONDARY PUSH OF COOL AIR ARRIVES IN TIME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK  
AND SHOULD RESULT IN 80S BEING MORE WIDESPREAD FOR A DAY OR TWO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025  
 
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:  
 
THERE'S A 75-90% CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH  
THE PERIOD. THE PORTION OF THE PERIOD WHERE IT'S LOWEST IS  
14-17Z, WHERE THERE IS UP TO 25% CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS. LATEST  
TRENDS SUGGEST THAT OUTFLOW FROM STORMS (CURRENTLY OVER  
SOUTHEAST SD) AND ASSOCIATED CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS WILL FAVOR  
AREAS MAINLY NE-E OF THE TERMINALS. COULD SEE SOME AFTN CU  
DEVELOP AROUND 3-4K FT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN FEW TO SCT.  
 
ONGOING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) FROM STRONG LLJ - AS  
SAMPLED BY LATEST UEX VAD TO BE AROUND 45KT AS LOW AS ~1500FT  
AGL - SHOULD WEAKEN BY AROUND 13-14Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT  
OF THE SE TO S AROUND 10-15KT (HIGHEST EARLY THIS MORNING), THEN  
BACK OFF TO AROUND 8-11KT OUT OF THE SE WED EVE.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...THIES  
AVIATION...THIES  
 
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