094
FXUS63 KGID 062332
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
632 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (15-30%) RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT (MAINLY
NORTH OF I-80) AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SCATTERED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (20-50%) AND HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE COOLER THAN EXPECTED, DUE TO
LINGERING STRATUS OVER THE AREA. STRATUS HAS ERODED FROM MOST
OF THE AREA, OUTSIDE OF AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 IN
NEBRASKA. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB FAIRLY
QUICKLY ONCE STRATUS ERODES, HIGHS ACROSS NEBRASKA MAY FALL A
FEW DEGREES SHORT FROM WHAT WAS PREDICTED THIS MORNING (UPPER
80S VS LOW 90S). FURTHER SOUTH, IN KANSAS, TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED INTO THE 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEARING 100 DEGREES.
THE LINGERING STRATUS WILL ALSO HELP TO PREVENT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
ALL 12Z MEMBERS OF THE HREF KEEPING THE AREA CAPPED/DRY. THE OTHER
AREA TO WATCH WILL BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, AS A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
JUST EAST OF THE AREA, SO THE ENTIRE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING, BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY...
ALOFT, RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY RESULTING
IN HOT AND HUMID WEATHER OVER THE AREA. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL CLIMB
INTO THE LOW 90S (NORTHEAST) TO LOW 100S (SOUTHWEST). HEAT INDEX
VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. A HEAT HEADLINE
WAS CONSIDERED FOR THURSDAY, BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS
OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ONE AS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FAIRLY MARGINAL FOR
CRITERIA (FORECAST 100-105 WITH CRITERIA BEING 105) AND WE'RE AROUND
THE WARMEST TIME OF YEAR CLIMATOLOGICALLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINING FAIRLY CAPPED ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING, AND IF ANYTHING DOES FORM, IT WOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGHS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED,
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE HIGHER (103-108). A
HEAT HEADLINE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY, BUT WILL DEFER
TO A FUTURE SHIFT TO ISSUE.
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE (15-30%) ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY ROBUST CAPPING IN PLACE WHICH
LOOKS TO HINDER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE AREA MOST
FAVORABLE FOR THE CAP TO BREAK WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
WHERE CAPPING IS THE WEAKEST. IF AN ISOLATED STORM IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP, IT WOULD BE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME
SEVERE, MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 80 HAVE POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF POPS DECREASE FURTHER AS
WE GET IN THE RANGE OF CAM GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS OF
PRECIPITATION, THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT.
THIS WEEKEND ONWARDS...
BROAD TROUGHING WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGHS RETURN TO NEAR
THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS (MID 80S-LOW 90S). SCATTERED CHANCES
FOR POPS (20-50%) LINGER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGHING ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE DURING THE
EVENING- OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WESTERN
PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD, WITH THE MAIN
CHANCES FOR ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATER TONIGHT EXPECTED
TO REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL AREAS. LOWER LEVEL STRATUS WAS
STUBBORN TO LIFT/SHIFT OUT OF THE AREA TODAY...MAINLY AT KGRI,
CAN'T RULE OUT ANOTHER HOUR OF MVFR CEILINGS, BUT OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. MODELS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT-EARLY THU
MORNING, BUT THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
TERMINAL AREAS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...ADP
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