049  
FXUS63 KGID 070934  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
434 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR DAWSON, GOSPER, PHELPS, FURNAS  
AND HARLAN COUNTIES UNTIL 11AM THIS MORNING. VISIBILITY IN A  
FEW AREAS COULD DROP AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE. A FEW AREAS OUTSIDE  
OF THE ADVISORY MAY DROP BELOW 1 MILE.  
 
- HIGHS IN THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S FOR A  
FEW KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL PRIMARILY RANGE 100-105 DEGREE THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW AREAS REACHING UP TO 110 DEGREES FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY SHOULD KEEP MOST AREAS  
IN THE 80S WITH A FEW SOUTHERN AREAS UP TO THE MID 90S OVER  
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION/STORM CHANCES FOLLOW THE FRONTS PASSAGE  
PRIMARILY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY (UP TO 30-55% CHANCES).  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025  
 
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...(SHORT TERM)...  
 
THIS MORNING, SOME AREAS OF FOG HAVE SLIPPED INTO A FEW OF OUR  
WESTERN AREAS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 11AM FOR DAWSON,  
GOSPER, PHELPS, FURNAS AND HARLAN COUNTIES. VISIBILITIES IN THESE  
AREAS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 1/4 OF A MILE. FOG COULD MIGRATE FURTHER  
EAST OF THESE AREAS, DROPPING VISIBILITIES TO AS LOW AS 1-3 MILES FOR  
A FEW PLACES OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY. THIS BANK OF FOG IS NOT  
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND ANY LONGER THAN 11AM.  
 
THE MAIN HEADLINE FOR TODAY AND ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE  
HEAT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE THE FULL 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS  
HIGH AS 100-105 DEGREES AREAWIDE. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPOSSIBLE FOR  
A FEW MORE ISOLATED AREAS IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO WARM INTO THE  
LOW 100S, THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCES WILL FALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
HIGHS FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW DEGREES, PEAKING FOR THE  
WEEK IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S FOR A FEW KANSAS AND FAR  
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AREAS. DEWPOINTS UP TO THE MID 70S ACROSS  
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WILL HELP SEND HEAT INDEX VALUES  
UP TO 105-110 DEGREES FOR A FEW OF THE WARMER SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN  
AREAS AS WELL AS THE MORE HUMID NORTHEASTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE CONSIDERED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH  
CONDITIONS LOOKING TO FALL JUST SHY OF MEETING CRITERIA THIS  
AFTERNOON (HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AT LEAST 105 DEGREES).  
 
HEAT INDICES COMPARED TO THIS TIME OF YEAR LEAVES MUCH OF THE AREA  
ONLY IN THE MODERATE HEAT RISK CLASSIFICATION (LEVEL 2 OF 4) WITH  
THE MAJOR CLASSIFICATION (LEVEL 3 OF 4) IN PLACE FOR MOST AREAS  
FRIDAY GIVEN A MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF 105+ HEAT INDEX VALUES.  
LIGHTER TO STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY AND FRIDAY  
(GUSTING NO HIGHER THAN 15-20 MPH) WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL  
DRIVE WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURE (WBGT) VALUES UP INTO THE MID TO  
UPPER 80S. LIMITED HEAT RELIEF FROM THESE WINDS PAIRED WITH THE  
LACK OF CLOUD COVERAGE (NATURAL SHADE FROM SOLAR HEATING) WILL LEAVE  
THE HIGH WBGT CLASSIFICATION (LEVEL 3 OF 4) IN PLACE BOTH DAYS.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN UNMENTIONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS  
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD FILL MUCH OF THE SPACE UNDERNEATH THE  
BROAD RIDGING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW, LIMITING STORMS  
ABILITY TO INITIALIZE. HAZY SKIES COULD BE SLIGHTLY MORE NOTICABLY  
TODAY AS BOTH THE HRRR AND RRFS SMOKE MODELS SHOW A PLUME OF  
ELEVATED SMOKE RIDING THE RIDGE OVER FROM SOME WESTERN COLORADO AND  
SOUTHWEST WILDFIRES. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT MUCH OF  
THIS SMOKE WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE, THOUGH THE  
MODERATE PM2.5 AQI (AIR QUALITY INDEX) SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED TO  
IMPROVE MUCH THAN IT HAS BEEN LATELY.  
 
FRIDAY EVENING AND BEYOND...(LONG TERM)...  
 
THE NEXT MAJOR PATTER CHANGE WILL COOL TEMPERATES OFF A BIT AS WELL  
AS INTRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER  
LEVEL WAVE, NOW ENTERING THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WILL SWING EAST  
AND OVER TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED  
TO EMERGE OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND EASTERN WYOMING AS EARLY  
AS TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY CROSSING SOUTHEAST AND DOWN INTO THE AREA  
FRIDAY EVENING TO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL (10-  
30% CHANCES) FOR A FEW STORMS TO BREAKOUT ALONG THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT  
FRIDAY WITH THE BETTER OVERALL POTENTIAL CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE  
NORTH. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR FRIDAY  
EVENING TO NIGHT LAYS ACROSS VIRTUALLY ALL OF OUR NEBRASKA AREAS.  
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR  
60 MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS, THOUGH THE  
COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE MORE LIMITED THAN WIDESPREAD.  
 
THE MORE NOTABLE PRECIPITATION/STORM CHANCES LIE SATURDAY NIGHT AND  
INTO SUNDAY. A MARGINAL RISK ADDITIONALLY COVERER A MAJORITY OF OUR  
NEBRASKA AND ALL OF OUR KANSAS AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY MAY STALL SOME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, LEAVING A STATIONARY  
BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. AFTERNOON TO NIGHT  
TIME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ABLE TO POP UP ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE  
BOUNDARY. THOUGH A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, IT IS TOO  
EARLY STILL TO LAY THE SCENE AS THE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHLY  
RELIANT ON WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ACTUALLY ENDS UP.  
 
BESIDES THE WEEKEND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, AN INCREASE IN CLOUD  
COVERAGE AND THE RETURN OF NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE  
FRONT SATURDAY WILL DROP HIGHS 10-15 DEGREES FOR THE WEEKEND. THE  
"COOLEST" DAY IN THE NEXT 7 DAY IS SLATED TO FALL MONDAY AS HIGHS  
SPREAD THE FULL 80S. THE EROSION OF THESE STEADY NORTH TO  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BACK TO BROAD SOUTHERLIES AGAIN TUESDAY WILL  
ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO TREND BACK UP SOME FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
STORM CHANCES CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT EACH DAY WITH A LOW END 15-  
25% CHANCE RETURNING EACH AFTERNOON TO NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025  
 
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:  
 
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WOULD BE  
FOR FOG POTENTIAL THURSDAY MORNING. A BANK OF FOG COULD SPREAD  
OVER FROM THE WEST, REDUCING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 4-6 MILES  
BETWEEN 9 AND 14Z. THE DENSEST FOG SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE  
AREA, WITH KEAR HAVING SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES OF ENTERING MVFR  
VISIBILITIES OVER KGRI.  
 
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST NO  
HIGHER THAN 15KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS COULD BECOME A FACTOR  
THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IN TIME IS TO  
LOW TO INCLUDE FOR NOW. PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE  
NEXT AT LEAST 24 HOURS.  
 
 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ060-072-  
073-082-083.  
KS...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...STUMP  
AVIATION...STUMP  
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