548
FXUS63 KGID 311752
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1252 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
- TUESDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY, THEN A COLD FRONT BRINGS
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
- DRY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
A FEW SHOWERS PERSIST NEAR AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 281 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS MORNING. NEAR-TERM MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY
PERSISTING AND EVEN EXPANDING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUT
HAS GENERALLY BE OVER-DOING THE INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS. A
FEW AREAS COULD PICK UP AN ADDITIONAL 0.50-1.00" THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, BUT RAIN RATES SHOULD REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO AVOID
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES.
WESTERN AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY TODAY, BUT CAMS DO HINT
THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP AS FAR
WEST/SOUTHWEST LEXINGTON, NE DOWN TO STOCKTON, KS. INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED, SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S IN
SOUTHWEST AREAS THAT SEE SOME SUNSHINE...TO JUST THE MID 60S IN
OUR NORTHEAST THAT SEE MORE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.
THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY REMAINS PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGAIN, THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...BUT
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA COULD SEE AT LEAST A PASSING SHOWER OR
WEAK THUNDERSTORM.
THE AREA FINALLY DRIES OUT ON TUESDAY, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 70S (AND EVEN LOW 80S IN THE
EXTREME SW PARTS OF THE AREA).
A COLD FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER COOLDOWN AND A CHANCE (20-30%) FOR
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST
SKIES CLEAR, OVERNIGHT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE
THE COOLEST WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST 3 MONTHS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS IS THE 46-48 DEGREE RANGE,
AND THE LAST TIME WE DIPPED INTO THE 40S WAS WAY BACK ON JUNE
4TH.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ARE FAVORED TO REMAIN DRY. THE NEXT
HINT FOR RAIN WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD/UNCERTAINTY ON THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE MODELS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
OVERVIEW...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH, BUT
VARIABLE AT TIMES. FOG IS LIKELY TO RETURN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER IS NOT
IMPOSSIBLE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE OF TIMING IT TO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF FOR NOW.
KGRI CEILINGS BREAKDOWN...
IFR CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 20-21Z
WITH MVFR BASES REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH 2-3Z (80% CONFIDENCE).
THERE IS ONLY A 20% CHANCE THAT VFR CONDITION MATERIALIZE AT
ANY POINT DURING THIS PERIOD. LOWERING BASES AFTER 3Z WITH THE
INTRODUCTION OF FOG SETS A 80-90% CHANCE THAT AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS ARE MET BETWEEN 4-15Z WITH A 40-50% CHANCE FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 8-13Z. VISIBILITIES DURING THIS PERIOD COULD
DROP AS LOW AS 1/2SM BETWEEN PRIMARILY 11-15Z.
KEAR CEILINGS BREAKDOWN...
MVFR CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND THROUGH 2-3Z WITH
A 40-50% CHANCE THAT BRIEF VFR CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE BETWEEN
21-3Z. LOWERING BASES AFTER 3Z WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF FOG
SETS A 80-90% CHANCE THAT AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS ARE MET
BETWEEN 3-16Z WITH A 60-70% CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN
5-14Z AND 30-40% CHANCE OF LIFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 8-13Z.
VISIBILITIES DURING THIS PERIOD COULD DROP AS LOW AS 3/4SM
BETWEEN PRIMARILY 11-15Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...STUMP
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