620
FXUS63 KGID 010524
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1224 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING
SHOULD NOT DEPOSIT MORE THAN 0.1-0.3" OF PRECIPITATION IF
THAT.
- PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE PERIOD RANGE FROM 20% TOWARDS OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS UP TO 40-60% IN OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN AREAS (ONLY 30-40%
CHANCES FOR THE TRI-CITIES).
- ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A MID-WEEK COLD FRONT REINFORCES A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE (UPPER 60S TO LOW 80S
HIGHS).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
GLOOMY SKIES CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER A MAJORITY OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, THOUGH A FEW BREAKS HAVE STARTED TO APPEAR ACROSS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALL THAT REMAINS
PRECIPITATION WISE IS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SPRINKLED HERE AND THERE.
HIGHS TODAY TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S UP TO LOW 70S AND UP TO THE UPPER
70S FOR AREAS THAT HAVE LESS COVERAGE IN CLOUD COVERAGE.
THOUGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY,
THE BEST PERIOD OF TIME FOR ANY LAST MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
(MAINLY LESS THAN <0.15") SHOULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS A FEW OUTER PRECIPITATION BANDS REPASS THROUGH A
FEW MAINLY NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. NOT ALL PLACES WILL HAVE
AN EQUAL CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION AS A SHARP NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST GRADIENT OF POPS LIES WITH CHANCES IN OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS REMAINING BELOW 20% AND WITH CHANCES NO GRATER THAN 40-60%
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA (30-40% FOR TRI-
CITIES). ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF THIS PERIOD WILL
LIKELY OCCUR ONLY FOR A SHORT, BRIEF DURATION AND IN MORE ISOLATED
RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD AREAS THIS EVENING OR MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CHANCES WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAS GENERALLY DECREASED WITH MOST
PLACES NOW ONLY EXPECTED TO RECEIVE 0.1-0.2" MORE OF PRECIPITATION
IF EVEN THAT BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY (LESS MOISTURE
AVAILABLE THAN EXPECTED). IN REALITY, MORE PLACES SHOULD REMAIN DRY
RATHER THAN WET.
GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH HIGH SURFACE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH >95%), THE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP AS LOW AS 1/2 TO EVEN 1/4 OF A MILE IN A FEW PLACES. A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE IF
CONFIDENCE OF WIDESPREAD 1/4 MILE VISIBILITIES INCREASE.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
THE LAST OF THE LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OUT EAST IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY CLEAR ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN ADDITION
WILL RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HIGHS FOR THE DAY
SHOULD RANGE THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
MAINTAINING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ANOTHER PATTERN SHIFT UP IS EXPECTED TO FALL WEDNESDAY AS A POWERING
UPPER-LEVEL LOW DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST, LOWERING HEIGHTS AND COOLING
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. EFFECTS FROM THIS DISTURBANCE WILL BE FELT
ALL THE WAY DOWN AT THE SURFACE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION EARLY WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD REFILL THE SKY WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES MIXING IN (UPPER 60S TO MID 70S HIGHS). A SMALL
15-25% PRECIPITATION CHANCE RETURNS FOR THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY AS A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CAN'T BE FULLY RULED OUT FROM THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BETTER CHANCES LIE TOWARDS THE EAST OF THE
AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE STEERED NORTH, HELPING MIX IN A
DRIER (CONTINENTAL POLAR) AIR MASS DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
(50S DEWPOINTS). TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THEIR COLDEST POINT OF THE
WEEK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS DRY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EACH DAY. DESPITE CLEARER SKIES FRIDAY, A REINFORCING FRONT FRIDAY
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE, ONLY 10-20%, LIES SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE 12Z 500MB LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO DIVERGING SIGNALS
DEVELOPING WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE MIDWEST UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE DAY-
5 (FRIDAY) LEADING CLUSTER EXPLAINS 35% OF THE VARIANCE PRIMARILY
FROM THE GEFS (AMERICAN ENSEMBLE), POINTING TOWARDS A DEEPER LOW
COMPARED TO THE SECOND LEADING CLUSTER ENSEMBLE 26% OF THE VARIANCE
FROM PRIMARILY THE ENS (EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE). IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS
OUT, A STRONGER LOW COULD OFFER SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
POTENTIALLY MORE ACTIVE WINDS. BOTH SIGNALS, HOWEVER, CONTINUE TO
POINT TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, WITH GRI/EAR EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO IFR CEILINGS. THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG, ALTHOUGH THE LATEST NEAR-TERM MODELS
HINT THAT THE WORST OF THE FOG WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF
GRI/EAR.
CEILINGS IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON AT EAR...BUT MVFR CEILINGS MAY
PERSIST AT GRI INTO MONDAY EVENING.
SPOTTY SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR AND JUST EAST OF GRI TONIGHT, AND A
FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP FURTHER WEST MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...MANGELS
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