170
FXUS63 KGID 011737
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
..UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID
MORNING. VISIBILITY AS LOW AS ONE QUARTER MILE IS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS NEAR THE HIGHWAY 81 CORRIDOR.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF 330AM
THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 10AM, AND SKIES
WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. NORTHEASTERN AREAS
MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL.. OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONALLY, A BAND OF SHOWERS (WITH ONLY A FEW STRAY LIGHTNING
STRIKES) HAS PERSISTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING, FED BY THE MOIST AIRMASS AND FORCED BY AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE THE
LACK OF LIGHTNING, THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS, AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. CAMS SHOW
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHWAY 81
CORRIDOR THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN AS THE SHORTWAVE DEPARTS THIS
EVENING, AND TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY AS WELL.
CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 70S AND
EVEN LOW 80S ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO THE AREA. THAT
SAID, POPS ON THE LATEST NBM HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD. NORTH WINDS
WILL ALSO BE THE BREEZIEST OF THE WEEK...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-25
MPH RANGE.
A FAIRLY HIGH-CONFIDENCE DRY PERIOD ARRIVES FOR THURSDAY AND
LASTS THROUGH SUNDAY. THURSDAY WILL START OFF ON THE COOL SIDE
IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF
NEBRASKA TO DIP INTO THE 40S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. CLEARING SKIES
SHOULD THEN ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY!
A SECONDARY FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
LEADING TO A COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TREND A BIT WARMER TO START NEXT WEEK (STILL BELOW
NORMAL, THOUGH). CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS CREEP BACK INTO THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFICS REMAINS
PRETTY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A TRICKY TAF FORECAST THIS CYCLE WITH CLOUD BASES BREAKING
BETWEEN SCATTERED TO BROKEN AND EVENTUALLY OVERCAST TONIGHT.
CEILINGS SHOULD NOT DIP BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS BEFORE 1Z (80-90%
CONFIDENCE FOR KEAR / 60-70% CONFIDENCE FOR KGRI) WITH TEMPORARY
VRF CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (40-60% CHANCE FOR KEAR / 10-30% CHANCE
FOR KGRI). INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE AFTER 1Z WITH LOWERING
CEILINGS SHOULD KEEP CEILINGS AT OR BELOW MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 16Z. BETWEEN 1-16Z THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE OF IFR
CEILINGS AS WELL AS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR LIFR CEILINGS BETWEEN
8-14Z AT KGRI AND KEAR. FOG IS ALSO A POTENTIAL BETWEEN 8-14Z
WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING AS LOW AS 2-3SM AT TIMES.
PRECIPITATION CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TODAY, THOUGH ANY
ROGUE SHOWER WILL BE LIKELY MINUSCULE AND SHORT LIVED (20%
CHANCE). OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES AND PRIMARLY OUT OF THE NORTH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...STUMP
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