259
FXUS63 KGID 102340
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
640 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
- THE NEXT BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-65%) LIE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TO SUNDAY (COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE). A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
- A TOUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY (UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S) WITH 80S
EVENING OUT MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
- A 30-35% SHOWER/STORM CHANCE RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN LINE TO PEAK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S WITH STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
THURSDAY AS WELL. THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH ONLY A MINOR 10-15% CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OUT OF OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR EASTERN KANSAS AREAS.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES A SOMEWHAT ELONGATED RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. A PROGRESSIVE WAVE MOVING CLOSER IN
FROM THE WEST SHOULD RUN INTO THE SLOWER EASTERN U.S. TROUGH,
COMPRESSING THIS RIDGE FURTHER. HIGHER PRESSURE ALOFT PROVIDING
SUBSIDENCE (STABLE/SINKING AIR) WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE PULLING UP WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH, WILL BOTH HELP
CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND AND KEEP OUR FORECAST DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE ON THEIR WAY INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, CURRENTLY SITTING AS THE WARMEST DAY IN OUR 7-DAY
FORECAST. THE OTHER FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE THE FORMATION OF A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMING UNDERNEATH OF THE DIFFLUENT
EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS
FEATURE WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND IN
TERMS OF FRONTOGENESIS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THE NEXT TRULY DECENT PRECIPITATION CHANCE (40-60%) ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE CHANCES HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE AS FORECAST AND MODEL CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW WILL BE ON TRACK TO SLIP BY OUR NORTHWEST OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP PROVIDE WIDE SCALE ASSENT AND
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE AREA (MID-LEVEL COOLING AND PVA). AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD EMERGE OUT FROM THE EASTERN
ROCKIES, TIED TO THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORMING ALONG THE UPPER
PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL SWEEP DOWN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ACTING AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR STORMS.
BOTH THE GFS (AMERICAN ENSEMBLE) AND ECMWF (EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE)
INDICATE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS ROAMING OUR FORECAST
AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY EVENING-SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND TOTAL NUMBER OF STORMS EACH DAY TIED TO THE SPEED
OF THE FRONT. CURRENTLY THE ECMWF POINTS TOWARDS A GREATER
COVERAGE OF STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT (QUICKER WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE) AND THE GFS POINTS TOWARDS A GREATER COVERAGE
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT (SLOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE). IN
ADDITION, THE CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT COULD TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF UP 2,500 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN SOME PLACES. DESPITE
LOWER THAN IDEAL SHEAR (BULK SHEAR <35 MPH), THE POTENTIALLY
DRIER LOW-LEVELS COULD HELP ENHANCE STORM DOWNDRAFTS, LEADING TO
MORE GUSTY WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE (PLENTY OF TIME YET TO
SORT OUT THE DETAILS HERE).
BESIDES PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD
OFFSET THE WARMING TREND, EVENING OUT HIGHS BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER
80S SATURDAY AND COOLING AROUND 5-10 DEGREES MORE FOR SUNDAY
(UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S). STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 15-20 MPH
AT TIMES SHOULD REMAIN A CONSTANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S
TO 80S WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTHERLY. A SHORTWAVE BEHIND THE UPPER-
LEVEL LOW MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY (30-35% CHANCES).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT LIGHT FOG COULD DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT-EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BUT AT TIME POINT MOST
MODELS/GUIDANCE KEEP VISIBILITIES ABOVE 6SM. ALSO NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT A FEW LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS COULD WORK THEIR WAY INTO
THE AREA, BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING A BKN DECK TO CAUSE SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD, REMAINING SSERLY. SPEEDS TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY LOOK TO TOP OUT AROUND 10 MPH, WITH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING GUSTS CLOSER TO 25 MPH.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 530 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2025
-- TRI CITIES AIRPORTS (GRAND ISLAND/HASTINGS/KEARNEY) ALL
EXCEED 80 DEGREES FOR FIRST TIME SINCE AUG. 22ND !
- THIS AFTERNOON, ALL THREE TRI CITIES STATIONS EXCEEDED 80
DEGREES, ENDING A REMARKABLE 18-DAY STRETCH (AUG. 23-SEP. 9)
OF HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT 80-OR-LESS!
- FOR ALL THREE STATIONS, THIS IS THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD THAT
ALL 18 DAYS BETWEEN AUG. 23-SEP. 9 DID NOT EXCEED 80!
ADDITIONAL DETAILS SPECIFIC TO EACH STATION FOLLOW...
- GRAND ISLAND AIRPORT (130 YEARS OF RECORDS SINCE 1896):
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 80 DEGREES ON FOUR OUT OF
THE 18 DAYS AUG. 23-SEP. 9, IT NEVER ACTUALLY EXCEEDED 80. THIS
IS THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD THAT GRAND ISLAND FAILED TO EXCEED
80 DEGREES BETWEEN THOSE DATES.
- HASTINGS AIRPORT (119 YEARS OF RECORDS SINCE 1907):
HERE, THE HIGH TEMPERATURE NEVER EVEN REACHED 80 DEGREES ON ANY
OF THE 18 DAYS AUG. 23-SEP. 9! THE WARMEST TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY
78 DEGREES (WHICH OCCURRED 5 TIMES). THIS IS THE FIRST TIME ON
RECORD THAT HASTINGS FAILED TO EVEN REACH 80 DEGREES BETWEEN
THOSE DATES.
- KEARNEY AIRPORT (125 YEARS OF RECORDS SINCE 1901):
ALTHOUGH THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED EXACTLY 80 DEGREES ONCE OUT
OF THE 18 DAYS AUG. 23-SEP. 9, IT NEVER ACTUALLY EXCEEDED 80.
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME ON RECORD THAT KEARNEY FAILED TO EXCEED
80 DEGREES BETWEEN THOSE DATES.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...ADP
CLIMATE...PFANNKUCH
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