148
FXUS63 KGID 111744
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1244 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM (UPPER 80S) AND BREEZY (GUSTS TO 30 MPH) TODAY WITH A
SMALL CHANCE (10-30%) FOR A THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
- THE NEXT BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
- PERIODIC (MAINLY SMALL) CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
NORMAL (NORMAL HIGHS ARE AROUND 80).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTS WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME VERY PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN
SPOTS, WITH VISIBILITIES FALLING TO 1-2 MILES AT A FEW AUTOMATED
SITES. MODELS HINT AT A FEW VERY ISOLATED SPOTS DEVELOPING
POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK, WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
LIMITED TO LOW LYING AND VERY SHELTERED LOCATIONS (IF IT
DEVELOPS AT ALL). DID ADD SOME FOG TO THE FORECAST THROUGH 9 AM,
ALTHOUGH DO NOT THINK IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD OR OVERALL A BIG
DEAL. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON LOOKS ON TRACK,
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY AND BREEZY AFTERNOON EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. INCREASED WINDS GUSTS A BIT, WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.
THE OTHER MAIN CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS TO ADD A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. MODELS KEY IN ON THE LLJ DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
BY 10 PM...WITH AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80 BEING IN A FAVORED
LOCATION FOR SOME ASCENT AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE 06Z HRRR (AS WELL AS PREVIOUS RUNS) CONTINUES
TO POINT AT THIS POTENTIAL, AND HAVE 10-30% POPS NOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...FRIDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL
THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE ON THE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE SIDE GIVEN THE AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND A MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILE. LOOKING AT MODELS
SOUNDINGS, STRONG WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS, WITH
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY WE ARE NOT
OUTLOOKED.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY, A CLOUDY,
COOLER AND UNSETTLED DAY APPEARS IN STORE THE LOCAL AREA, WITH
OFF AND ON ADDITIONAL SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION (ALONG
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES) ANTICIPATED OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT WEEK. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE DATA, THE NEXT BEST SHOT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/DISTURBANCE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AROUND 12Z THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15Z
AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH BY 18Z. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AROUND
05Z-09Z. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND 05Z TO 09Z. LOW CEILINGS ARE
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW MVFR CLOUD
BASES, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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