162
FXUS63 KGID 112026
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
326 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (UP TO NEAR 30% CHANCE)
TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT (UP TO
NEAR 80% CHANCE).
- THERE ARE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY (UP TO NEAR A 50% CHANCE TUESDAY NIGHT).
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE 90S FOR FRIDAY (WARMEST
DAY) AND COOL INTO THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S ON SUNDAY (COOLEST
DAY).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EXTENDS
NORTHWARD UP TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST SUSTAINED AT AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP
INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SOME TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 60S. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH UP TO NEAR A 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERALLY NOT EXPECTING THESE
STORMS TO BE SEVERE, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
WITH FAIRLY HIGH LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED MARGINAL CAPE VALUES;
HOWEVER, WIND SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY LOW.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
PRESENT FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER RIDGE AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD
ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL HEAT UP INTO THE LOW TO MID
90S ACROSS MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE AREA WITH A SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO AROUND 30 MPH.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ON SATURDAY. WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 30 MPH. CLOUD
COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (UP TO NEAR 80%) WILL INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS UPPER
LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH. STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO MARGINAL MUCAPE VALUES AND MARGINAL WIND
SHEAR VALUES. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE (AROUND 30% TO 70% CHANCE).
WHILE IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO CONFIDENTLY EXAMINE SEVERE
POTENTIAL FOR SUNDAY, A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH EXPECTED WIND SHEAR VALUES UP TO 30
KNOTS AND SURFACE CAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 2,000 TO 3,000
J/KG ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO
THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S. SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BEGINNING MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
(15% TO 20% ON TUESDAY AND INCREASING TO NEAR 50% TUESDAY NIGHT).
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (20% TO 40% CHANCE) CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND MORE SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ON
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND
SWITCH TO THE SOUTH AROUND 12Z THEN TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 15Z
AND INCREASE IN STRENGTH BY 18Z. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AROUND
05Z-09Z. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND 05Z TO 09Z. LOW CEILINGS ARE
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW MVFR CLOUD
BASES, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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