143
FXUS63 KGID 121731
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1231 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE. MOST AREAS (ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF I-80) WILL REMAIN DRY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON (IN THE LOW TO MID 90S)...IN PART
THANKS TO A VERY MILD START TO THE DAY.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-70%) RETURN
SATURDAY EVENING/SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO
SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY WHEN THE MAIN TROUGH PIVOTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (40-60%)
RETURN TUESDAY PM/WEDNESDAY...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
SOME VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED PARTS
OF THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW MORE WEAK SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE LOW
LEVEL JET, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY. WITH STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 10 MPH ALL NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING STILL IN THE LOWERS 70S. WITH A
WARM START TO THE DAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE THEIR RECENT TREND UPWARDS, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SAME TIME WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TODAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS...MAINTAINING A MODEST
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION.
ACROSS THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BECOME POSITIVELY TILTED TODAY
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST BEGINS TO GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY
SWING INTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE ONE MORE
RELATIVELY HOT DAY IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL LIKELY BE TEMPERED A FEW DEGREES IN
PART THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...THEY WILL STILL CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS THE TROUGH THEN SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY...EXPECT
AND INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...WHICH
WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE TIMING FOR POTENTIAL STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NOW SHIFTING TOWARDS SUNDAY
WHEN THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WITH
1-2KJ/KG OF CAPE, MODEST SHEAR AND A BIT OF AN INVERTED V
LOOKING SOUNDING, SOME STRONGER STORMS LOOK PROBABLE, WITH
SEVERE WINDS GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS...AND SPC NOW HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ADVERTISED ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...WPC HAS THE LOCAL AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...ALBEIT THE CURRENT QPF FORECAST (LESS THAN 1") ALONG
WITH THE DRY SPELL OF LATE...SUGGESTS THAT FLOODING MAY NOT BE
MUCH OF A PROBLEM.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS FURTHER NORTHEAST ON MONDAY, EXPECT
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH...BRINGING ANOTHER GOOD SHOT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK...BRINGING LESS ACTIVE WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
NICE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR SKIES RETAIN THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH A FEW TO
SCATTERED CLOUDS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN, ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT AS LLWS LOOKS PROBABLE WITH THE PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE
NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET. UP TO 45 TO 50KTS OF SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LLWS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 2-14Z. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BETWEEN 10-15MPH
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH. THERE IS NO CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...STUMP
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