350
FXUS63 KGID 122342
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
642 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS: 30-70%
SATURDAY NIGHT (FOR AREAS WEST OF HWY-281), 40-75% SUNDAY TO
SUNDAY NIGHT, 30- 70% TUESDAY NIGHT, 40-60% WEDNESDAY & 20-40%
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- A FEW STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO NIGHT COULD BECOME SEVERE
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60MPH THE PRIMARY CONCERN AND LARGE
HAIL UP TO 1" POSSIBLE (QUARTER SIZED).
- TEMPERATURES FALLING TO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
GRADUALLY FALLING FROM THE 80S MONDAY, BACK DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY DAYTIME...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REACH THEIR WARMEST POINT OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 90S. BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH,
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20-25MPH AT TIMES (UP TO 30MPH FOR A FEW SOUTHERN
AREAS) SHOULD REMAIN STEADY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE
ON TACK TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL
RETURN TO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S, A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF TODAY.
THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN OUR FORECAST UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING.
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY...
A SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP KEEP
THE BREEZY SOUTHERLIES AROUND FOR A FEW DAYS AS FRONTOGENESIS TAKES
PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. ALOFT, THE RIDGE THAT
HAS LAID OVERTOP OF THE AREA FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE
SHOVED TO THE SIDE AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN
EMERGING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS SATURDAY WILL HELP DRIVE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS FROM THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL BE EXPECTED TO PASS SUNDAY,
DIGGING UP A MIX OF STORMS AND SHOWERS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY EVENING,
INCREASING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BROAD SUPPORT FROM TROUGHING IN THE
MID-LEVELS (WIDE SCALE ASSENT FROM PVA) AS WELL AS THE HELP FROM A
SURFACE COLD FRONT, SHOULD HELP SUSTAIN THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THEIR ARRIVAL. THEY ONLY QUESTION THAT REMAINS UNANSWERED IS
WHEN THIS WAVE WILL ARRIVE. THE LATEST MODELED RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH DOWN SOME, POTENTIALLY INDICATING THAT THE
BETTER CHANCES (BEYOND OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS) LIE SUNDAY IN REGARDS
TO SATURDAY EVENING.
THE LATEST (18Z) CAM MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS A FEW STORM
INITIALLY ARRIVING AFTER 6PM SATURDAY, THOUGH IT IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN HOW FAR EAST THESE STORMS WILL PROGRESS OVERNIGHT. THE
HRRR AND NAMNEST KEEP MOST OF THE ACTION WEST OF HWY-281 SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF STORMS AND SHOWERS REMAKING THEIR WAY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. 40-75% POPS RETAIN THROUGH ALL OF
SUNDAY AS THERE COULD BE A FEW ROUNDS OF THESE STORMS THROUGH THE
DAY WITH BREAKS INBETWEEN.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE IN THE
AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE. CURRENTLY, THE SPC COVERS OUR FULL AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5). MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 1-2KJ/KG WITH 6-
8C/KM LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. IN ADDITION, GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS UP TO 60 MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT EITHER AS DRIER
LOW-LEVELS COULD HELP ENHANCE STORM DOWNDRAFTS, LEADING TO A FEW
POTENTIALLY GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE. DESPITE
THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HIGH POPS, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
ARE ONLY FORECAST UP TO 0.5"-0.75" THOUGH A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS COULD PRODUCED LOCALIZED HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
ONE BENEFIT TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE AROUND 10 DEGREE
COOLER HIGHS FOR SUNDAY (MID 70S TO LOW 80S). WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH, ALMOST A CARBON COPY OF FRIDAY'S AND
SATURDAY'S CONDITIONS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE SLIGHTLY FOR MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S), HIGHS SHOULD SLOWLY CRAWL BACK TO THE 70S BY THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL STAY SOUTHERLY UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN ANOTHER POTENTIAL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SHAKES THINGS BACK UP. THE WEEKEND TROUGH WILL
PIVOT TO THE NORTH MONDAY, WITH A SHORTWAVE TRAILING BEHIND,
BRINGING YET ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. (UP TO 40-65% CHANCES). A FEW ROUNDS OF SCATTERED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH THE ACTUAL AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REFLECT THE SOMEWHAT EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME
THAT THE POPS STICK AROUND FOR (ONLY 0.5" TO 1" MORE OF
PRECIPITATION). BECAUSE FORECAST QPF AMOUNTS LAY UNDER 2" FOR THE
WEEK, FLOODING ON A WIDE SCALE WILL NOT BE EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE (95%) IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS
OVER 25KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LLWS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNRISE ON SATURDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...MANGELS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page