489
FXUS63 KGID 140537
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (CHANCES UP TO AROUND 75% LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA) THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. 20% OR LESS CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS.
- THERE IS A THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE THE
MAIN CONCERNS.
- SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE A CONCERN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S AND 80S AFTER
TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO ARIZONA AND NEW
MEXICO WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.
WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY
GETTING UP TO 30 MPH WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH TO THE WEST
AND NORTH OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
THE MID 80S TO THE MID 90S. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
BEGINNING LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM DAWSON TO FURNAS COUNTY
THEN POSSIBLY MOVING AS FAR EAST AS HIGHWAY 281 OR HIGHWAY 81 BY
SUNRISE SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT, AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO REMAIN POSSIBLE (20% OR
LESS CHANCE). LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW
70S.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SUNDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MORNING CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH
MORE UPPER LIFT MOVING OVER THE AREA. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF A LINE FROM LOUP CITY TO KEARNEY TO PHILLIPSBURG. CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. WIND GUSTS UP TO
60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW 70S TO MID 80S WITH MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW/MID 60S.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP INTO THE 80S
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. WHILE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, THERE ARE SOME MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPING LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES CLOSER. LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL
BE THE FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CAPE VALUES, MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, AND WIND SHEAR VALUES ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY
AND WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF A LINE OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS. THIS LINE
WILL MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES DURING THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS.
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING LARGELY WEST-EAST, FIRST IMPACTING KEAR
THEN KGRI. A FM GROUP WAS INCLUDED FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIME OF
STEADY RAIN. DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED TO DEVELOP NEAR/WEST OF KEAR, MOVING
EAST TOWARDS KGRI. SUB-VFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THESE STORMS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THESE STORMS INCLUDE STRONG
WINDS BUT GIVEN THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THESE STORMS AND
UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE, WIND GUSTS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN PM
PROB30 GROUPS AT THIS TIME. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE
MID-LATE EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTS OF 20-25KTS. WINDS
QUICKLY DROP OFF AROUND SUNSET AS GUSTS FALL TO AROUND 10KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...DAVIS
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