003
FXUS63 KGID 162031
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
331 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT THE MAIN
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING.
- LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY (AROUND 45% TO 65%
CHANCE) AND THURSDAY (AROUND 20% TO 60% CHANCE).
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE MAINLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS MAY GET UP TO AROUND 20 TO 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER LIFT. CAPE VALUES AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT WIND SHEAR WILL BE LACKING UNTIL THE INCREASE IN UPPER LIFT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WHICH THE MODELS
DID NOT INDICATE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING INTO DAWSON, GOSPER, AND FURNAS COUNTIES FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. INITIALLY, THERE MAY BE SOME
LARGE HAIL WITH THIS LINE BUT EXPECT THE HAIL THREAT TO DIMINISH
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH A WIND THREAT REMAINING. THE LINE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK APART BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE TRI-CITIES AREA WITH THE
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO A THREAT OF HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH, THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR UP TO AROUND 30
KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER AND/OR
REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING (UP TO AROUND 55% CHANCE). THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE SEVERE THREAT ON THURSDAY WITH
FAIRLY HIGH CAPE VALUES, WIND SHEAR UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS, AND
ENHANCED UPPER LIFT PRESENT; HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOW WHICH
WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
(UP TO AROUND A 25% CHANCE) WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINING OVER
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP FROM PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESENT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE BEGINNING AROUND 03Z TO
06Z. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS BEGINNING AROUND 07Z FOR KEAR
AND 09Z FOR KGRI. ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES ARE FROM 16Z TO 18Z
WEDNESDAY FOR BOTH TERMINALS. WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY EXPECTED
TO BE VFR, MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR STORMS AND MAY
OCCUR AT KEAR AROUND 16Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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