858
FXUS63 KGID 170550
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1250 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON, EXPECT THE MAIN
COMPLEX OF STORMS TO ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING.
- LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY (AROUND 45% TO 65%
CHANCE) AND THURSDAY (AROUND 20% TO 60% CHANCE).
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AFTER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER WYOMING AND MONTANA AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS ARE MAINLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. WIND GUSTS MAY GET UP TO AROUND 20 TO 25
MPH THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN UPPER LIFT. CAPE VALUES AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUT WIND SHEAR WILL BE LACKING UNTIL THE INCREASE IN UPPER LIFT
MOVES OVER THE AREA. STORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WHICH THE MODELS
DID NOT INDICATE AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE MAIN LINE OF STORMS MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LINE OF
CONVECTION MOVING INTO DAWSON, GOSPER, AND FURNAS COUNTIES FROM THE
WEST BEGINNING BETWEEN 10 PM AND 1 AM. INITIALLY, THERE MAY BE SOME
LARGE HAIL WITH THIS LINE BUT EXPECT THE HAIL THREAT TO DIMINISH
FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH A WIND THREAT REMAINING. THE LINE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK APART BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE TRI-CITIES AREA WITH THE
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO SPREAD EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN ADDITION TO A THREAT OF HAIL UP TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 60 MPH, THERE IS A LOW THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY STILL BE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO LINGERING INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR UP TO AROUND 30
KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER AND/OR
REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER
PORTION OF THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL REMAIN OVER NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING (UP TO AROUND 55% CHANCE). THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO THE SEVERE THREAT ON THURSDAY WITH
FAIRLY HIGH CAPE VALUES, WIND SHEAR UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS, AND
ENHANCED UPPER LIFT PRESENT; HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES WILL BE LOW WHICH
WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
(UP TO AROUND A 25% CHANCE) WITH AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINING OVER
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOW
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP FROM PREVIOUS DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW
PRESENT. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
COMPLEX TAF FORECAST WITH ONGOING AREAS OF CONVECTION NEXT FEW
HOURS, FOLLOWED BY POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR STRATUS LATER
THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL HIT & MISS CONVECTION. AFTERNOON IS
TRENDING DRIER AND MAINLY VFR, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
CONVECTION: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS OFF TO
THE E/NE. TRANSITIONED FROM PREVAILING TO TEMPO IN THE 08-10Z
TIME FRAME, THEN PROB30S FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE MORNING
GIVEN EXPECTED UNCERTAIN TIMING/COVERAGE AND GENERALLY ISOLATED
NATURE. HAVE HELD OFF ON PROB30S FOR THE AFTN AS LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER THANKS TO A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS HOLDING IS LOW. WILL JUST NEED TO TAKE IT
IN FEW HOUR CHUNKS TODAY.
CIGS/VSBYS: WILL START OFF VFR, BUT THEN CONFIDENCE RAPIDLY
DETERIORATES TOWARDS DAWN AS SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS IN WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO PERHAPS EVEN IFR STRATUS...WHEREAS OTHER GUIDANCE IS
MORE SCT-BKN AND HIT AND MISS. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE LIKELY
OWING TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING/EXTENT OF CLEARING OF CONVECTION
AND GENERAL LOW LEVEL MASS FIELDS. HAVE CONTINUED PREVAILING
MVFR CIGS IN ROUGHLY THE 12-18Z TIME FRAME, BEFORE SOME LIFTING
AND SCATTERING ARRIVES FOR THE AFTN. IT'S POSSIBLE THE AM COULD
TREND WORSE - MORE SOLIDLY IFR...BUT IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE THE
STRATUS COULD BE MORE TRANSITORY. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW.
WIND: GUSTY NW WINDS HAVE MOVED IN TO BOTH TERMINALS PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS, BUT THESE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND TURN MORE N-NE
BY DAWN. EXPECT CONTINUED VEERING TO SERLY FOR WED AM, AND
PERHAPS EVEN SW-W AT SOME POINT THIS AFTN. SPEEDS MOST OF THE
PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE 8-12KT, BUT SOME GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT
THIS AFTN DEPENDING ON CLEARING AND OVERALL MIXING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...THIES
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