510
FXUS63 KGID 131746
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1246 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON. BEST
OVERALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COMES THIS EVENING-TUESDAY
AM.
- FOLLOWING HIGHS IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY, THERE REMAINS A MUCH
COOLER, MORE FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE AGAIN IN THE
60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...A FEW LOW 70S POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN
AREAS.
- EXPECTING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS OUT ONTO THE PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES. HIGHS
LOOK TO REBOUND INTO THE 70S-NEAR 80 AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR
WED-THU...DROPPING BACK MAINLY INTO THE 60S BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
CURRENTLY...
UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE CENTRAL PLAINS SITTING BETWEEN RIDGING
EXTENDING FROM SRN TX NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE PAC NW. THE
SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CANADA WAS THE ONE THAT HELPED DRIVE THAT
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...WHICH
CURRENTLY LIES FROM THE OK/TX PANHANDLE AREA UP THROUGH EASTERN
PORTIONS OF IA/MN. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW...BRINGING A GRADUAL SWITCH TO MORE
NERLY WINDS. SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS SOME OVERALL WEAK
FORCING WORKING ITS WAY NE ACROSS THE REGION...NOT LOOKING TO
AMOUNT TO A WHOLE LOT.
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
OVERALL, THERE REALLY WEREN'T ANY NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINING SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY, A BIT MORE WESTERLY AS WE GET
INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS LOOKS
TO STRENGTHEN/BUILD FURTHER NNE AS THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE PAC NW DIGS SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST...BUT
THE RIDGE AXIS ITSELF SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFF TO OUR ESE.
LOOKING AT THE DAYTIME HOURS TODAY...OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING, MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
SHOWING A LULL THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY OR SO. THIS AFTERNOON,
SUBTLE FORCING MOVING IN FROM THE SW WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WHICH LOOK TO
BE SPOTTY/SCATTERED IN NATURE. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND THROUGH THE DAY, WITH EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND
10-15 MPH. HIGHS A NOTABLE CHANGE FROM THE 80S ON SUNDAY,
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-MID 60S.
THIS EVENING ON THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE AREA BRINGS ADDITIONAL, LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD,
ACTIVITY TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING ON THIS
IS NOT HIGH...SOME MODELS HAVE THINGS MOVING IN/OUT QUICKER
THAN OTHERS...SO SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN WHETHER THE MORE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS MAINLY A TONIGHT/EARLY TUES AM PUSH OR IF
IT LINGERS LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, WITH
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO OUR EAST, WINDS TURN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SPEEDS STILL TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10-15 MPH. THE QUESTIONS WITH HOW PRECIPITATION EVOLVES
THROUGH TUESDAY LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGH TEMP
FORECAST...WHICH CURRENTLY RANGES FROM RIGHT AROUND 60 IN THE
FAR NORTH TO LOW 70S IN THE FAR SOUTH. ANY QUICKER/SLOWER TREND
WITH THE PRECIP WOULD IMPACT TEMPS.
WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRIVEN BY THAT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST MON-TUE...BRINGING PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY MAY BE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...SITTING BETWEEN THE DISTURBANCE TUESDAY AND THE
LARGER SCALE TROUGHING WORKING EAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES. OUT
AHEAD OF THAT MAIN TROUGHING, WARMER AIR PUSHING NORTHWARD WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 70S-NEAR 80...WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS WHEN MODELS
CURRENTLY SHOW THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SWINGING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FIRST
DEVELOPING ALONG A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SHOWN TO BE
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST. HAVE 30-50 PERCENT CHANCES GOING THURSDAY
EVENING-FRIDAY AM...AT THIS POINT MODELS AREN'T SHOWING A WHOLE
LATE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, BUT WE'LL SEE HOW THAT TRENDS
IN THE COMING DAYS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND- MONDAY...FORECAST DRIES
OUT AS WE SIT IN MORE NWRLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THIS LATE WEEK
SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO AGAIN REACH
INTO THE 70S-NEAR 80 AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM...WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT DROPPING THINGS BACK
INTO THE 60S-NEAR 70 FOR THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICKENING AND LOWERING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA JUST SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. WE EXPECT THIS THICKER CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
NORTH AND INTO OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WITH IT
GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 5 PM. THIS IS NOT A CONTINUOUS RAIN, BUT
RATHER OFF AND ON AGAIN PASSING SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS BY
JUST BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. THE OFF AND ON RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN
MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY MORNING IS THAT WE
COULD SEE IFR CEILINGS AT TIMES, BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF YET, BUT COULD BE ADDED WITH LATER
UPDATES.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...WESELY
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