473
FXUS63 KGID 131959
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
259 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BUT WITH LIMITED 20-30% COVERAGE. THOSE THAT DO SEE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE TO 0.10
HUNDREDTHS.
- THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) NOW APPEAR TO BE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AND THEN PRESSING EAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPECT LESS THAN 0.25", BUT A FEW
AREAS SOUTH OF THE TRI-CITIES COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 0.50". NO
SEVERE WEATHER, AT BEST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
- WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK
(UPPER 70S - LOWER 80S), THEN COOLER/FALL LIKE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND (UPPER 60S - LOWER 70S).
- THE NEXT DECENT RAIN CHANCE (30-50%) WILL BE WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A BIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE ARE SEEING A FEW ISOLATED
ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
WHAT HAS BECOME A STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED THROUGH TONIGHT. THOSE THAT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE LIGHT
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10". THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL (>50%) ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN ALL DAY RAINFALL, BUT RATHER MORE
SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS COMING AND GOING THROUGH THE DAY.
MORE RECENT HRRR AND NAM MODELS FAVOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (SOUTH
OF I-80) FOR THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
0.25", BUT PROBABLY STILL LESS THAN 0.50" FOR MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHILE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES EAST INTO THE WYOMING AND UTAH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S IN WHAT WILL BE OUR WARMEST TWO DAYS OF THE
WEEK AHEAD.
WE WILL SEE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW IS MOST LIKELY TO
TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE
DAKOTAS.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING MAKING FOR A COOLER MORE FALL LIKE PERIOD, BUT STILL
RATHER PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE CHILLY AND MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER
30S IN SOME OF OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICKENING AND LOWERING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND AREAS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA JUST SOUTH OF OUR TAF
SITES. WE EXPECT THIS THICKER CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
NORTH AND INTO OUR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WITH IT
GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 5 PM. THIS IS NOT A CONTINUOUS RAIN, BUT
RATHER OFF AND ON AGAIN PASSING SHOWERS LATER THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING MVFR CEILINGS BY
JUST BEFORE DAWN TUESDAY MORNING. THE OFF AND ON RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING, BUT AGAIN
MAINLY LIGHT AMOUNTS. MAIN CONCERN TUESDAY MORNING IS THAT WE
COULD SEE IFR CEILINGS AT TIMES, BUT PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF YET, BUT COULD BE ADDED WITH LATER
UPDATES.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...WESELY
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