408
FXUS63 KGID 140013
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
713 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BUT WITH LIMITED 20-30% COVERAGE. THOSE THAT DO SEE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE TO 0.10
HUNDREDTHS.
- THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) NOW APPEAR TO BE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AND THEN PRESSING EAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPECT LESS THAN 0.25", BUT A FEW
AREAS SOUTH OF THE TRI-CITIES COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 0.50". NO
SEVERE WEATHER, AT BEST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
- WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK
(UPPER 70S - LOWER 80S), THEN COOLER/FALL LIKE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND (UPPER 60S - LOWER 70S).
- THE NEXT DECENT RAIN CHANCE (30-50%) WILL BE WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A BIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE ARE SEEING A FEW ISOLATED
ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
WHAT HAS BECOME A STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED THROUGH TONIGHT. THOSE THAT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE LIGHT
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10". THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL (>50%) ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN ALL DAY RAINFALL, BUT RATHER MORE
SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS COMING AND GOING THROUGH THE DAY.
MORE RECENT HRRR AND NAM MODELS FAVOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (SOUTH
OF I-80) FOR THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
0.25", BUT PROBABLY STILL LESS THAN 0.50" FOR MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHILE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES EAST INTO THE WYOMING AND UTAH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S IN WHAT WILL BE OUR WARMEST TWO DAYS OF THE
WEEK AHEAD.
WE WILL SEE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW IS MOST LIKELY TO
TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE
DAKOTAS.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING MAKING FOR A COOLER MORE FALL LIKE PERIOD, BUT STILL
RATHER PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE CHILLY AND MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER
30S IN SOME OF OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WINDS):
ALTHOUGH NO WORSE THAN LOW-END VFR SHOULD PREVAIL THESE FIRST
10-11 HOURS THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY THE FINAL 12-14
HOURS WILL FEATURE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AS CEILING LOWERS TO
MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR...ACCOMPANIED BY INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS (NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
OVERALL UNLIKELY AND NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS). VISIBILITY LIKELY
REMAINS VFR AT LEAST THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
ANY STEADIER SHOWERS COULD BRIEFLY PROMOTE MVFR (NOT INCLUDED IN
TAFS). WINDS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR FACTOR, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
NO MORE THAN 8-12KT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME AS DIRECTION
PREVAILS EASTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BEFORE TURNING MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON (SOME GUSTS COULD REACH 15-17KT
MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON).
- ADDITIONAL CEILING/VISIBILITY/PRECIPITATION DETAILS:
THROUGH MOST OF THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT, NO WORSE THAN LOW-END
VFR CEILING (MAINLY 3,500-5,000 FT. AGL) WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH
SITES, WITH BOTH SITES ALSO PRONE TO OCCASIONAL/INTERMITTENT
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER, BY ROUGHLY 10Z KEAR/11Z KGRI, ODDS
INCREASINGLY-FAVOR MVFR CEILING (HIGH CONFIDENCE), WHICH COULD
THEN LATER DROP TO IFR AT LEAST INTERMITTENTLY ANYTIME AFTER
ROUGHLY 18Z KEAR/19Z KGRI (MEDIUM CONFIDENCE). AS FOR
VISIBILITY, NO WORSE THAN LOW-END VFR (6SM) SHOULD PREVAIL THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE TIME, BUT ANY STEADIER SHOWERS COULD EASILY
CAUSE AT LEAST BRIEF MVFR. SPEAKING OF RAIN SHOWERS, THE
OVERALL- GREATEST LIKELIHOOD AND AREAL COVERAGE APPEARS TO FOCUS
BETWEEN 10-19Z, DURING WHICH TIME PREVAILING -SHRA IS
INDICATED. HOWEVER, COVERAGE BOTH BEFORE/AFTER THOSE HOURS
SHOULD BE MORE SPOTTY AND THUS IS ADDRESSED WITH PROB30 GROUPS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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