605
FXUS63 KGID 140533
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1233 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING
BUT WITH LIMITED 20-30% COVERAGE. THOSE THAT DO SEE RAINFALL
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE A TRACE TO 0.10
HUNDREDTHS.
- THE BEST RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) NOW APPEAR TO BE DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY AND THEN PRESSING EAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
NIGHT. MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPECT LESS THAN 0.25", BUT A FEW
AREAS SOUTH OF THE TRI-CITIES COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 0.50". NO
SEVERE WEATHER, AT BEST A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE.
- WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK
(UPPER 70S - LOWER 80S), THEN COOLER/FALL LIKE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND (UPPER 60S - LOWER 70S).
- THE NEXT DECENT RAIN CHANCE (30-50%) WILL BE WITH THE NEXT
COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
A BIG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WE ARE SEEING A FEW ISOLATED
ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF
WHAT HAS BECOME A STALLED OUT SURFACE FRONT. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL REMAIN RATHER ISOLATED THROUGH TONIGHT. THOSE THAT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE LIGHT
AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10". THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY AND WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL (>50%) ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
THIS IS BY NO MEANS AN ALL DAY RAINFALL, BUT RATHER MORE
SCATTERED HIT AND MISS SHOWERS COMING AND GOING THROUGH THE DAY.
MORE RECENT HRRR AND NAM MODELS FAVOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES (SOUTH
OF I-80) FOR THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
0.25", BUT PROBABLY STILL LESS THAN 0.50" FOR MOST AREAS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE MISSOURI VALLEY WHILE UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES EAST INTO THE WYOMING AND UTAH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE NEXT UPPER STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S IN WHAT WILL BE OUR WARMEST TWO DAYS OF THE
WEEK AHEAD.
WE WILL SEE INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WESTERN STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE UPPER LOW IS MOST LIKELY TO
TAKE A MORE NORTHEASTERLY TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH
THE BEST CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE
DAKOTAS.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL COME THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING MAKING FOR A COOLER MORE FALL LIKE PERIOD, BUT STILL
RATHER PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE CHILLY AND MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER
30S IN SOME OF OUR NORTHERN LOCATIONS BY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
STRATUS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS A BAND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVES INTO THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO
LOW MVFR BY SUNRISE, WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID-
LATE MORNING HOURS. AS SHOWERS COME TO AN END, CEILINGS WILL
BECOME IFR. IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, FOG IS FAVORED TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE TAF SITES, WITH IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN FOG. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR LIFR/DENSE FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW HAVE INDICATED THIS
POTENTIAL WITH A 3SM BR GROUP.
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
MID-LATE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF
8-10KTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHTER LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...DAVIS
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