280
FXUS63 KGID 150531
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1231 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY THE REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 20% CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, COULD BE
LOCALLY DENSE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
- COOLER/SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (63-75F) RETURN FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
MAYBE SOME PATCHY FROST SUNDAY MORNING LEXINGTON TO ORD?
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE HAVE COME TO AN END AND WE ARE
EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING SKIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. A
WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE WORKING NORTH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING AND THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT.
FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WE MAY NEED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOME OF OUR NEBRASKA ZONES LATER TONIGHT,
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY WITH THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR DENSE FOG TO
DEVELOP WOULD BE FROM AROUND GENEVA, TO HASTINGS, TO LEXINGTON
AND POINTS NORTH FROM THERE.
SOME FORECAST MODELS ALSO TRY TO GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF
THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH. AT THIS POINT, IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WOULD BE VERY SPOTTY IN COVERAGE AND FAIRLY LOW PROBABILITY
(20%).
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF NEVADA ON
WEDNESDAY AND INTO MONTANA BY THURSDAY, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE MISSOURI TO MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WARM
AIR WILL STREAM NORTHWARD WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM/COLD FRONT. THIS IS A HIGH
CONFIDENCE LOW FORECAST SPREAD FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS.
WE COULD SEE A FEW VERY ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A WEAK VORT MAX PASSING THROUGH OUT
WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH (20%). THE MAIN POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH AND
FAVORING WESTERN ZONES. FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS
WESTERN ZONES AND THEN THE OVERALL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND OPEN
UP AS IT SLIDES EAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
IT WILL CERTAINLY TURN COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY,
BUT ESPECIALLY WITH A SECONDARY SHOT OF COOLER AIR OVER THE
WEEKEND. FRIDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 70S, BUT 60S ARE
MORE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN LOWER DEW POINTS WE EXPECT
A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE WITH PERHAPS
EVEN MID TO UPPER 30S FOR LOWS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR OUR FIRST FROST IN
AREAS LIKE ORD AND LEXINGTON. OVERALL THIS SHOULD BE A DRY
PERIOD.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH, BUT WILL PROBABLY
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH SO ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE CURRENTLY LOW (20%). PERHAPS WE CAN REACH THE 70S AHEAD OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON MONDAY AND THEN COOLER 60S BEHIND THE
FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DENSE FOG AND LIFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, BEFORE VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES, FIRST AT KEAR THAN KGRI. THE TRANSITION FROM
LIFR TO VFR WILL LIKELY BE QUICKER THAN DEPICTED IN THE TAF, BUT
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING RESULT IN THE SLOWER DEPICTION SHOWED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE, WITH
BRIEFLY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. SHOWERS COME TO AN
END AROUND NOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NOON THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT KEAR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
WHICH IS NEAR THE LOW LEVEL JET. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
BEHIND THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE
MID-LATE MORNING HOURS. LLWS AT KEAR ENDS AS WINDS INCREASE THIS
MORNING. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS, AND GUSTS OF 20-25KTS
ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, STRONGEST AT KEAR. GUSTS FALL
BELOW 20KTS THIS EVENING, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15KTS
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...DAVIS
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