859
FXUS63 KGID 151114
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
614 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG, AT TIMES DENSE, CONTINUES THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS NORTH
OF I-80.
- LOW CHANCE (15-20%) FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS MORNING.
- WARM AND BREEZY TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
20-35MPH.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE (20-60%) THURSDAY EVENING-
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- COOLER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND (HIGHS 60S/70S), WITH A CHANCE FOR
FROST SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
TODAY...
FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING NORTH OF A SLOWLY
ADVANCING WARM FRONT. FOG IS DENSE AT TIMES, WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM. THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
TRIMMED/NARROWED THIS MORNING AS FOG AND STRATUS CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE MID-MORNING HOURS, WITH ANY FOG COMING TO AN END. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE (15-20%) THIS MORNING, BUT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND RAIN ENDS BY THE LATE MORNING
HOURS.
ALOFT A TROUGH SITS OVER THE WEST COAST, WITH RIDGING OVER THE
MIDWEST, PLACING THE AREA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. STRONG WARM AIR
A ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL RESULT IN A SEASONABLY
WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED, GUSTING 20-35MPH, STRONGEST
WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
THURSDAY...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES THURSDAY
MORNING, IT WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY WHICH MAY KEEP FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SLIGHTLY
COOLER. BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, GUSTING 25-35MPH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE (25-
60%) ALONG THE FRONT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL OUT JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING (15-35%
POPS) INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP ADVECT
DRIER WEATHER INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS DECREASING
INTO THE LOW 40S. FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S (WEST) TO MID 70S (EAST).
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAKE FOR PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) INCREASES OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25MPH DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CAA, A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE, RESULTING IN THE SEASONS FIRST CHANCE FOR FROST. LIGHT
WINDS, CLEAR SKIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FROST, MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DETAILS ON FROST COVERAGE (AND TEMPERATURES) WILL BECOME CLEARER
AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT THOSE WITH SENSITIVE VEGETATION SHOULD
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. WESTERLY WINDS AND A
DRY AIRMASS ALLOW FOR A FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S-LOW 70S.
MONDAY ONWARDS....
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS INCREASING SPREAD (DISAGREEMENT) AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEK, IN PARTICULAR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY SATURDAY ONWARDS, BUT
A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE MOISTURE STARVED
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK. NEAR-ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. FOG AND LOW STRATUS
HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM KGRI/KEAR. BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MORNING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE
MAINTAINED A PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS MORNING WHEN SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS STEADILY INCREASE THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 15KTS AND
GUSTS OF 20-25KTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
STRONGEST AT KEAR. GUSTS FALL BELOW 20KTS OVERNIGHT, BUT WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10-15KTS. OVERNIGHT, LLWS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET, AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...DAVIS
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