299
FXUS63 KGID 162004
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
304 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS (20-50% CHANCE) FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON THROUGH NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY...IF NOT
SOONER.
- COOLER, BUT STILL SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED
BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT FRIDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF
COLD AIR BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS
(UP TO AROUND 40 MPH) TO THE AREA SATURDAY.
- AS WINDS DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES DROP SATURDAY NIGHT, COULD
SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FROST TO START THE DAY SUNDAY,
WITH DRY WEATHER AND GENERALLY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THEN
ANTICIPATED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
A WELL DEFINED LINE OF SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE SEE CLIPPING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS LINE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD TRACK FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LOCALLY AND EXPECT OVERALL
DIMINISHING ACTIVITY AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS...LIKELY BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE HIGHWAY 281
CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...THE BEST OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO EXIST PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY
183...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES LATER IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS
YOU LOOK FURTHER EAST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, SEEING GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 40 MPH+...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
SOME DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE SUN GOES DOWN AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT DIMINISHES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WHILE THE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT LOOKS FAIRLY ROBUST THIS AFTERNOON, WE
ARE NEARING PEAK HEATING AND MAXIMUM INSTABILITY, AND FULLY
EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO FALL APART THIS EVENING. MODELS
ARE KEYING IN ON THE WEAKENING OF THE LINE LATER TODAY, AND
LIKELY SOME AREAS...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...MAY ONLY SEE
SOME SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY NO RAINFALL AT ALL.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER...YET SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY ALONG
WITH NOTICABLY QUIETER WINDS...MAKING FOR AN OVERALL NICE
FINISH TO THE WORK WEEK. A SECOND COLDER FRONT WILL THEN MAKE A
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN A
POTENTIAL SURGE IN NORTHERLY WINDS AND AN UPTICK IN CLOUD
COVER TO START THE WEEKEND. WHILE NOT OVERLY COLD, AS WINDS
DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTH, COULD SEE A BIT OF FROST DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AREAS MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME
TIME FOR CHANGES, TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE MID-30S ACROSS
THE TRI-CITIES AREA, WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THICKER FROST
AND POTENTIALLY A FREEZE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
BEYOND SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES MODERATE ACROSS THE REGION TO NEAR
SEASONAL NORMS (LOWER 60S) AND DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO DRY WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A FRONT
GRADUALLY WORKS EAST TOWARDS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. COULD
SEE A STRAY SHOWER AHEAD OF THIS LINE, BUT MOSTLY EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS (WITH GUSTS 30KTS+) AND INCREASING MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. FOR THIS EVENING, THE FRONT SHOULD BE
APPROACHING KEAR AROUND 17/03Z...WHEN A PROB 30 GROUP BECOMES
VALID FOR POTENTIALLY MVFR VSBYS IN A -TSRA/TSRA. COULD ALSO SEE
SOME VERY MARGINAL LLWS OVER THIS TIME PERIOD, BUT WITH THE
FOCUS OF THE LLJ AIMED WELL EAST OF EITHER TERMINAL, OPTED TO
NOT INCLUDE THE MENTION OF LLWS FOR THE TIME BEING. FURTHER EAST
TOWARD KGRI...THE PROB30 GROUP EXTENDS THROUGH AROUND
07/09Z...WHEN THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY WILL EITHER HAVE
DIMINISHED OR JUST SHIFTED EAST OF THE TERMINAL.
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH STEADY NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS NEAR 10KTS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SR
AVIATION...SR
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