319
FXUS63 KGID 170907
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
407 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WEATHER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS.
- NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-40+ MPH EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY.
- FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING, MOST LIKELY NORTHWEST OF THE
TRI-CITIES.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ONWARDS,
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
TODAY...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY ALONG
A PHILLIPSBURG-GRAND ISLAND-FULLERTO LINE AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE AREA. BY SUNRISE, THE FRONT WILL RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. A COOLER,
BUT STILL SEASONABLY WARM DAY IS FORECAST TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S, COOLEST WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. TODAY WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE
WIND, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 20MPH. OVERALL, A PLEASANT
AND SUNNY OCTOBER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 40S ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER MANITOBA/NORTH DAKOTA WILL DEEPEN AND
DIVE INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, ANOTHER,
MORE IMPRESSIVE COLD FONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING-
EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, GUSTING 30-40+MPH. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE CONTINUES TO BE THE
MOST BULLISH ON WIND GUSTS, INDICATING A 40-80% FOR GUSTS OVER
40MPH ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OTHER GUIDANCE IS SLIGHTLY LIGHTER,
BUT STILL SUPPORTIVE OF WINDS GUSTING 30-40MPH. THE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL ALSO USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY VARY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE NORTH, TO THE
LOW 30S IN THE SOUTH.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD. UNDER THE HIGH, CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED. COMBINED WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS,
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING
AND BRING THE SEASONS FIRST CHANCE FOR FROST TO THE AREA. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR FROST NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-
CITIES WHERE TEMPERATURES SINK INTO THE LOW-MID 30S. FROST
LOOKS TO BE MORE ISOLATED/PATCHY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT. WHILE THERE REMAINS
TIME FOR THINGS TO CHANGE, FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
AFTER A POTENTIALLY FROSTY START TO THE MORNING, THE HIGH SLIDES OFF
TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WARMER, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, UNDER
SUNNY SKIES. DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, AS
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL BELOW 30 PERCENT, WHICH
COULD BRING SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO THE AREA. THE BIGGEST
LIMITS ON FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY WILL BE MARGINAL WIND GUSTS
AND NOT FULLY CURED FUELS. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON SUNDAY,
AS A TREND UP IN WINDS COULD WARRANT AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY ONWARDS...
A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA ON MONDAY. SIMILAR TO SATURDAY, WINDY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT, GUSTING 30-40+MPH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. UNDER THIS FLOW/REGIME, NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED (HIGHS 60S/70S,
LOWS 30S/40S), WITH BREEZY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST
REMAINS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. WINDS BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING. LLWS
WILL CONTINUE AT KGRI THROUGH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10KTS DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AROUND SUNSET AND SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. BKN-SCT MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE, WITH SKIES CLEARING DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...DAVIS
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