932
FXUS63 KGID 230542
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1242 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL MAKE FOR ANOTHER FROSTY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES BELOW NBM GUIDANCE AND UPGRADED NORTHERN AREAS TO
A FREEZE WARNING WHILE KEEPING FROST ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH.
- UPPER LOW TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT CONTINUES TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND MOST OF ANY
RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF HWY 6. LOWERED EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM TRACE AMOUNTS IN THE TRI-CITIES TO GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.25 INCHES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
- A SECOND SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES (30-50%)FOR
LIGHT RAIN (<0.25") TO THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW MEAN NBM GUIDANCE GIVEN NEAR
PERFECT CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING (CALM WINDS / CLEAR
SKIES). THERE COULD BE JUST A FEW CLOUDS NEAR DAWN, BUT MOST
LIKELY IT WILL BE CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR. LAST NIGHT'S LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW NBM GUIDANCE GIVEN SIMILAR (CALM /
CLEAR) CONDITIONS. AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR A SIMILAR DROP IN
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT HAVE UPGRADED THE FROST ADVISORY TO A
FREEZE WARNING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM 29-32. WILL CONTINUE WILL THE FROST ADVISORY FOR
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH, BUT AGAIN STILL GOING UP TO A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NBM GUIDANCE WITH OUR LOWS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AGAIN FAIRLY NICELY ON THURSDAY
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND RAISED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NBM
GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD MATCH UP WITH WHAT HAPPENED
WITH OUR WARMER HIGHS TODAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE UPPER LOW IS TAKING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND OKLAHOMA, WHICH WILL LIKELY ALSO TAKE THE HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR DECENT RAINFALL SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
EXPECTING LITTLE TO NOTHING FOR RAIN IN THE TRI-CITIES, WHILE
NBM RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN TO 0.10 - 0.25" ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN MOST KANSAS COUNTIES. EVEN THE RAINFALL IN KANSAS MAY
BE OVER FORECAST AND IF WE DO SEE THAT RAINFALL IT'S MOST LIKELY
(50-70% CHANCE) FRIDAY MORNING.
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREAD WILL GREATLY SHRINK WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING DEW POINTS ON FRIDAY. THAT
WILL KNOCK HIGHS DOWN INTO THE MID 50S, WHILE LOWS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER, MAINLY IN THE 40S.
WEEKEND WEATHER...
OVERALL IT WILL BE A DRY WEEKEND THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER WITH NBM INDICATING MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ALL
WEEKEND, BUT GIVEN THE MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW, WE
COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS WEEKEND, BUT STILL MORE
CLOUDS THAN SUNSHINE. THEREFORE, WILL FOLLOW THE NBM FORECAST OF
COOLER HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO RIGHT AROUND 60. CLOUDS WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS UP, SO MAINLY 40S FOR LOWS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT WE DO
EXPECT AN UPPER TROUGH TO SWING THROUGH, BRING AT LEAST SOME
CHANCE FOR GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
(HIGHS IN THE 50S). WE COULD BE TALKING ABOUT ADDITIONAL FROSTY
NIGHTS BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS
ABOVE 12KFT AND GOOD VSBYS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS
MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN
FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR 12 KTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE
SAME TIME, INCREASING CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH CIGS
EVENTUALLY LOWERING TO NEAR 12KFT DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS
AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ062>064-
073>077-082>087.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060-061-072.
KS...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...SR
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