076
FXUS63 KGID 240552
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1252 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER NIGHTS AHEAD, NEXT CHANCE FOR FROST/FREEZE NOT UNTIL
OCT 29-30 OR LATER. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 40S THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
- INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND THEN COOL AND CLOUDY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60 AT BEST. DRY
TO MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES IN THE TRI-CITIES, BUT AT LEAST SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-60% CHANCE) MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS (<0.25").
- AN ELONGATED OPEN TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR GENERALLY LIGHT
RAIN (<0.25") AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS (>20KTS). COOLER
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS (40S) BACK INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. WE'LL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER IN HEIGHT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. LOW IFR CEILINGS
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND EXPECT
LITTLE IF ANY SUN WITH THICK LOW CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
DOWN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW TRACK
ACROSS OKLAHOMA IS TOO FAR SOUTH FOR OUR AREA TO SEE MUCH
RAINFALL AND MOST NEBRASKA AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY TO PERHAPS SEE
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR MAYBE EVEN A LIGHT DRIZZLE. OUR KANSAS
ZONES STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING LIGHT RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS, BUT STILL LIKELY LESS THAN 0.25". IT WILL BE
WARMER TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASING CLOUDS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A COOL (50S TO AROUND 60) AND CLOUDY
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER WITH NBM INDICATING
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY SKIES ALL WEEKEND. CLOUDS WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS UP, SO MAINLY 40S FOR LOWS AND NO FROST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE NBM INCREASED RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) ON
SATURDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, BUT EXPECT MOST AREAS
WILL REMAIN DRY AND EVEN THESE SMALL RAIN CHANCES MAY BE A BIT
OVERDONE. RAINFALL IF ANYTHING WOULD LIKELY BE LESS THAN 0.10"
INCHES AND CONFINED TO SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OUT OF MONTANA AND
THE DAKOTAS AND BRING A QUICK SHOT (40-50%) AT SOME LIGHT RAIN
(<0.25") ON MONDAY. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH NBM INDICATING A FAIRLY BIG WINDOW FOR
HIGHS ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. WE DO HAVE PRETTY
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WITH BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THAT TROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE
COULD BE TALKING ABOUT ADDITIONAL FROSTY NIGHTS BY TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR GREATER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY, LIFR LIKELY
BY FRIDAY EVENING.
BKN CIGS AROUND 5K FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH DAWN BEFORE LOWERING
TO MVFR BY MIDDAY, THEN IFR THIS AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL MODEL AND
CONCEPTUAL MODEL GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST A HIGH LIKELIHOOD () FOR
LIFR CIGS AS EARLY AS 01-03Z FRI THAT WOULD LIKELY PERSIST ALL
NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MUCH OF SAT AM. VSBYS ARE A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN, BUT WOULD THINK AT LEAST MVFR TO IFR WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET FRI EVE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
MOIST ERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COULD EVEN SUPPORT DENSE (LIFR) FOG FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AM. KEPT THE TAFS AT IFR, FOR NOW, TOWARDS THE
END OF THE VALID PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
WINDS WILL BE SE TO ESE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD, 8-11KT THROUGH
THE DAYTIME, THEN SLIGHTLY WEAKER AT 5-8KT FOR FRI EVE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...THIES
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