861
FXUS63 KGID 241001
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
501 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A CLOUDY, DREARY, AND COOL FEW DAYS
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60. SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE
SUNSHINE UNTIL TUESDAY! THE CLOUDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
WELL ABOVE FREEZING.
- MAYBE A FEW SPRINKLES FROM THE TRI-CITIES NORTH AND WEST TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, BUT BETTER CHANCES (30-60%) FOR ORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
STATE LINE. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
0.25-0.50", OR LESS.
- THE NEXT TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE (30-60%) FOR SHOWERS.
- LESSER CLOUD COVER BUT BREEZY/CHILLY FOR TUESDAY. CONTINUED
SEASONABLY COOL NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S/60S. FROST &
FREEZE POTENTIAL RETURNS EACH NIGHT STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. STILL APPEARS THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE MAINLY S/SE OF
THE TRI-CITIES, THOUGH SOME SPRINKLES COULD MATERIALIZE FROM
TIME TO TIME FROM THE INCREASINGLY LOWER CLOUD COVER. GREATER
CHANCES (30-60%) FOR RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF HWY 6, AND ESP.
ALONG/S OF THE STATE LINE. ALREADY SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM LARGER UPPER
TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS MOVING INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
OSBORNE & MITCHELL COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL OFF AND ON "WAVES" OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THESE AREAS REMAIN
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF BETTER UPPER LIFT. THE INCREASING
CLOUDS HAVE HELPED TO KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS PRETTY MILD FOR LATE
OCTOBER IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...BUT THE CLOUD COVER WILL
ALSO STYMIE ANY CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT WARMUP LATER TODAY...SO
PROBABLY ONLY A 2-5 DEGREE DIURNAL SWING AMIDST MODEST (BUT
STEADY) ESE-SE WINDS. CERTAINLY A MUCH MORE CLOUDY/DREARY
PATTERN THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
CONTINUED SE/ESE LOW LEVEL FLOW (WHICH NATURALLY CARRIES SOME
UPSLOPE COMPONENT WITH IT) AND MOISTURE ADVECTION COULD SUPPORT
SOME AREAS OF FOG - POTENTIALLY DENSE - FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDER COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
OVER ROUGHLY THE W HALF/THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THE FOG WILL BE SIGNIFICANT, OR IF IT'LL
BE PRIMARILY VERY LOW STRATUS AND ANY LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE
MORE PATCHY. SOMETHING FOR NEXT COUPLE OF SHIFTS TO MONITOR AND
CONSIDER POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MOISTURE/WIND PATTERNS IN THE LOWEST 5K FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH TREKS W TO E ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
KEEP THE CLOUD COVER THAT ESTABLISHES ITSELF TODAY VIRTUALLY
LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, AND PROBABLY EVEN
MONDAY, AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY 5-10 DEG BETWEEN
MORNING LOWS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS. MAY REMAIN JUST CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE UPPER LOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES AND/OR ISO-SCAT
LIGHT SHOWERS FOR FAR S/SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS BEYOND TODAY WILL
ONLY BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO AROUND A TENTH. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF FOG EACH NIGHT, AS WELL, THOUGH AGAIN, COVERAGE AND
SEVERITY REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS FRONT WILL
FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE STUBBORN STRATUS CLOUDS, BUT NOT BEFORE
GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. TUESDAY WILL
CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT IT WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY
SIDE, SO SOME OF THE "WARMTH" OF THE SUN WILL BE OFFSET BY THE
WIND. THE REST OF WEEK WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AND SEASONABLY
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F. STARTING TUESDAY
NIGHT, FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL RETURN EACH NIGHT, THOUGH
BY THEN THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE WELL PAST THE MEDIAN FIRST
FREEZE DATE CLIMATOLOGICALLY...SO REALLY NOT A SURPRISE. HAS TO
HAPPEN EVENTUALLY. ENSEMBLES HINT AT SOME WARMER HIGH
TEMPERATURES LATE OCTOBER INTO EARLY NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY, LIFR LIKELY
BY FRIDAY EVENING.
BKN CIGS AROUND 5K FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH DAWN BEFORE LOWERING
TO MVFR BY MIDDAY, THEN IFR THIS AFTERNOON. NUMERICAL MODEL AND
CONCEPTUAL MODEL GUIDANCE BOTH SUGGEST A HIGH LIKELIHOOD (60-70%)
FOR LIFR CIGS AS EARLY AS 01-03Z FRI THAT WOULD LIKELY PERSIST
ALL NIGHT AND EVEN INTO MUCH OF SAT AM. VSBYS ARE A BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN, BUT WOULD THINK AT LEAST MVFR TO IFR WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET FRI EVE. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
MOIST ERLY UPSLOPE FLOW COULD EVEN SUPPORT DENSE (LIFR) FOG FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT AM. KEPT THE TAFS AT IFR, FOR NOW, TOWARDS THE
END OF THE VALID PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
WINDS WILL BE SE TO ESE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD, 8-11KT THROUGH
THE DAYTIME, THEN SLIGHTLY WEAKER AT 5-8KT FOR FRI EVE.
CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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