939
FXUS63 KGID 242113
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
413 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WITH BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOCUSING TO THE SOUTH, MAIN
CONCERN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD FOG. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 6PM
THIS EVENING THROUGH 11AM SATURDAY FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF HWY
281.
- UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SLOWING SLIDING EAST ALONG THE KS/OK
WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER HOWEVER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
REMAIN IN THE 50S.
- AFTER ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH ON MONDAY,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES, THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
DRIES OUT. HIGHS MON-FRI REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
CURRENTLY...
BEEN A PRETTY DREARY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...SOCKED
IN UNDER LOW LEVEL STATUS WITH CEILINGS THAT HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY LOWERING WITH TIME. LOOKING IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE
FORECAST AREA IS SITTING BETWEEN A COUPLE OF AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE...ONE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER,
THE OTHER SLIDING SOUTHEAST NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF ND/MN.
BROAD LARGER-SCALE LIFT, THOUGH ON THE WEAKER SIDE, HAS ALLOWED
FOR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH THE LOWER
CEILINGS TODAY (1K FT OR LESS)...WHILE A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT-
MODERATE RAIN HAS REMAINED FAIRLY STATIONARY ACROSS A SMALL
SECTION OF THE CENTRAL HWY 6 AREA...THANKS TO AN AREA OF
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. RAIN FROM LAST
NIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING DROPPED AROUND 1-1.25 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF MAINLY MITCHELL COUNTY KS...THIS BAND
LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALREADY BROUGHT AROUND 1 INCH TO
SPOTS IN CLAY/ADAMS/KEARNEY/FRANKLIN/WEBSTER/NUCKOLLS COUNTIES
(THERE WILL BE A FEW SPOTS OVER 1 INCH). THIS RAIN LOOKS TO
STICK AROUND FOR A BIT LONGER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW IT DIMINISHING WITH TIME. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS
REMAIN EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY...AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS, AND WEAK
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
MAINLY AROUND 10-15 MPH. NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE PLENTIFUL CLOUD
COVER/RAIN/DRIZZLE HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT FOR TEMPS FOR MOST
SPOTS TO DO MUCH OF ANYTHING...WITH 3PM OBS FROM THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S.
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
THIS EVENING THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...FOG
POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN CONCERN. TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE
40S-LOW 50S, WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY IN THE MID
40S-LOW 50S. THE INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, AIDED BY THE
RAIN/DRIZZLE TODAY, ALONG WITH EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISHING WITH
TIME...WILL BRING AN INCREASED THREAT FOR FOG. MODELS (ESP THE
HRRR) HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE WINDS LOOK TO
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING ON THE LIGHT/VARIABLE SIDE. AFTER
COLLAB WITH NEIGHBORS, DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...CURRENTLY HAVE FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF HWY 281, BUT
EVENING/MID CREWS WILL BE MONITORING OBS CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANY
ADJUSTMENT TO THE AREA IS NEEDED. WENT ON THE PESSIMISTIC/SLOW
SIDE FOR THE END TIME, WHICH RUNS THROUGH 11AM SATURDAY...WITH
IT BEING LATE OCT. AND NO NOTABLE SURFACE FRONTS MOVING THROUGH
TO HELP SCOUR THINGS OUT, ANY FOG MAY BE PRETTY SLOW TO MOVE
OUT.
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT ON THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
REMAIN TIED TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE CO/NM BORDER...WHICH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MAKING
SLOW PROGRESS EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ROUGHLY
ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AREA...BY SATURDAY EVENING ABOUT HALFWAY
ACROSS, THEN MAKING IT INTO THE MO/AR BORDER AREA BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. FORECAST PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...THEN TAPERING OFF SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW PUSHES FURTHER AWAY.
THOUGH MAIN CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE FOCUSED ACROSS OUR
SOUTH...THERE LOOKS TO BE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CURRENT MODEL TIME
HEIGHTS ARE DEFINITELY NOT OPTIMISTIC...KEEPING CEILINGS PRETTY
LOW ALL THE WAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING AT ANY NOTABLE
CHANGE WITH THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN
LOW TREKKING TO OUR SOUTH, WINDS REMAIN EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY,
CONTINUING TO PEAK AROUND 10-15 MPH.
NO NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST HIGHS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE TO DO MUCH, ESP SAT, WITH THE CONTINUED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP CHANCES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE IN THE MID
50S...SUNDAY A FEW DEGREES WARMER INTO THE UPPER 50S.
NEW WORK WEEK...
ANY BREAK THERE IS ON SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT LOOKS TO BE SHORT-LIVED,
WITH THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIP CHANCES MOVING IN DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY. MODELS SHOWING THE SOUTHERN END OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO CENTRAL
CANADA SWINGING EAST THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 40-50 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NE. ONCE THIS SYSTEM SWINGS EAST
MONDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK DRIES OUT.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, NOT LOOKING AT ANY NOTABLE SWINGS
EITHER WAY...FORECAST HIGHS REMAIN MAINLY IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HAVE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THIS ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINAL SITES. MODELS/GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH TIME, POTENTIALLY UNDER 1000FT BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...HAVE SUB-1000FT CEILINGS THEN THROUGH THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. MODELS ALSO SHOWING FOG POTENTIAL INCREASING THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BUT VARY WITH IF/WHERE DENSE FOG DEVELOPS.
AFTER 06Z, HAVE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2SM, WITH LESS THAN 1SM
POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF SUNRISE...WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THIS PERIOD. NOT A LOT OF
CHANGE EXPECTED WITH THE WINDS...REMAINING ESERLY, SPEEDS AROUND
5-10 MPH (LOWEST SPEEDS OVERNIGHT). BETTER CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE SHOWERS CONTINUES TO LOOK TO BE FOCUS TO THE
SOUTH...SO OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS CURRENTLY IN THE AREA, KEPT
THAT MENTION OUT, BUT WILL BE SOMETHING FOR INCOMING SHIFTS TO
MONITOR.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ039-040-046-
047-060>062-072>075-082>085.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ005-006-017-
018.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
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