717
FXUS63 KGID 251148
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDY, DREARY, AND COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- EXPECT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE AROUND 0.25", OR LESS.
- OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
ON MONDAY AND CLEAR OUT THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS...BUT NOT
BEFORE GIVING THE ENTIRE AREA A DECENT CHANCE (40-60%) FOR
SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER.
- OUTSIDE OF SOME BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON TUESDAY...GENERALLY QUIET AND SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 450 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS, COOL AND DREARY CONDITIONS THAT
SETTLED IN YESTERDAY AREN'T GOING TO GO ANYWHERE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED THE STRATUS
TO SETTLE TO THE SURFACE AS FOG FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL AUTOMATED OBSERVATION STATIONS AND
AREA WEBCAMS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 1/2 MI, AND
HAVE EXPANDED THE EXISTING DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
MORE/MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE FOG SEEMS TO BE LESS OF
AN ISSUE FOR AREAS FROM AROUND OSBORNE, KS NORTHEAST TO HEBRON,
NE. HOWEVER, THIS IS ALSO WHERE THERE ARE SOME PERSISTENT
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING TO SEE AS MUCH NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE SHOWERS TODAY AS WE SAW YESTERDAY, AS THE
PRIMARY UPPER LOW SPINS FROM THE DESERT SW INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THUS, EVEN OUR KS ZONES WILL BE ON THE FAR N PERIPHERY
OF THE BETTER UPPER LIFT. ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 0.25", OR LESS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY - SO NO CHANGE TO
THE EXISTING 11AM EXPIRATION TIME OF THE ADVISORY.
COULD BE A BIT OF A "WASH, RINSE, REPEAT" TYPE OF SCENARIO
TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG. SOME NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE ISN'T QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS THIS MORNING...HOWEVER, AM SOMEWHAT
SKEPTICAL THAT IT WON'T BE DENSE AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE OVERALL
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED, AND WHAT WEAK
LOW LEVEL FLOW THERE IS WILL MAINTAIN AN ERLY UPSLOPING
COMPONENT. THUS, AM MOST CONFIDENT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG FOR
AREAS ALONG AND W OF HWY 281. TO AVOID CONFUSION WITH THE
CURRENT DENSE FOG AND HEADLINE, WILL LET THE DAY OR EVENING
SHIFT ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR ANOTHER ONE TONIGHT.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH EASTWARD
PROGRESS FOR SUNDAY SUCH THAT ANY WRAP-AROUND SHOWERY ACTIVITY
REMAINS SE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
THE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND DREARY/COOL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST YET ANOTHER DAY. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY VARY 5-10 DEG FROM NIGHTTIME TO DAYTIME
FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION - LARGELY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S NOW THROUGH MONDAY AM.
AN OPEN, PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, FORCING A SWIFTLY-MOVING COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE W/NW, WHICH WILL HELP TO
SCOUR OUT THE STUBBORN STRATUS. THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL ALSO HELP TO PRODUCE OUR NEXT ROUND OF AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES. RECENT DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS
REMAIN QUITE A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS - EVEN SUGGESTING SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL - COMPARED
TO THE ECMWF. A SIMILAR DIFFERENCE IS ALSO APPARENT IN ENSEMBLE
DATA, BUT NOT TOO SURPRISING THAT EACH SEEM TO FAVOR A SOLUTION
SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE. AREAS N AND NE OF THE TRI-CITIES LOOK
TO HAVE OVERALL GREATEST CHANCES FOR AT LEAST 025-0.50" OF RAIN,
WITH CHANCES DECREASING AS ONE GOES S AND SW.
WE'LL DRY OUT TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS DEEP W/NW
FLOW SHUNTS ANY MOISTURE OFF TO THE E/SE. DAYTIME HOURS TUESDAY
COULD BE QUITE BREEZY, IF NOT WINDY, THANKS TO DEEP MIXING TO AT
LEAST 800-750MB, WHERE MEAN FLOW WILL BE 35-45KT - HIGHEST OVER
CENTRAL NE. IN FACT, THE LATEST 00Z EPS SHOWS A 40-60% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 34KT (OR ~40 MPH) DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. A FEW INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS ARE HIGHER INTO THE LOW 50S,
BUT IT'S LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE AT THIS TIME. GENERAL PATTERN
RECOGNITION WOULD SUGGEST TUESDAY AS A POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
DAY AND SOME RAW MODEL OUTPUT IS ALREADY SHOWING MINIMUM RHS AS
LOW AS ~20%. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, ESP THE HI-RES VARIETY,
TYPICALLY TRENDS LOWER ON HUMIDITY OVER TIME, SO THIS IS
DEFINITELY A DAY TO WATCH.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN STORY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RETURN OF FROST AND FREEZE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, BY THEN (LATE
OCT.) WE'LL BE WELL PAST THE MEDIAN FROST/FREEZE DATES FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...SO IT'S REALLY NOT MUCH OF A SURPRISE OR
"STORY" - JUST TYPICAL SEASONAL COOLING. OVERALL PATTERN IN THE
5-15 DAY TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE ONE OF MAINLY ZONAL TO NW UPPER
FLOW - WHICH TYPICALLY FAVORS FREQUENT, MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGES AND UP AND DOWN TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN
HINTING AT OUR NEXT WARMUP COMING AROUND THE FIRST WEEKEND IN
NOVEMBER IN WHICH HIGHS COULD RETURN TO AT LEAST THE 70S, AND
MAYBE EVEN 80S, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF FRONTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
TODAY: ONGOING LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS THIS MORNING, AND MAY EVEN CROSS AIRPORT MINIMUMS. SHOULD
SEE IMPROVING VISIBILITIES BACK TO 5-6+ SM GRADUALLY MID TO
LATE MORNING, BUT LIFR CIGS MAY NOT RISE BACK TO IFR UNTIL MID
AFTERNOON, AND ONLY AT GRI. EAR IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY
TO REMAIN AT LIFR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE DAYTIME.
TONIGHT: CIGS WILL FALL ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING TO SOLID LIFR,
AND BOTH SITES MAY FALL TO AIRPORT MINIMUMS OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY
ALSO BECOME A PROBLEM, ESP AT EAR. MVFR TO IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY
AT GRI AND EAR, RESPECTIVELY, WITH EAR STANDING THE GREATEST
RISK FOR LIFR VSBYS OVERNIGHT.
WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT (5-8KT) OUT OF THE E
TO ESE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>085.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005-006-
017.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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