633
FXUS63 KGID 252338
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR A FEW SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM 7PM TONIGHT UNTIL 11AM SUNDAY
- A FEW SHOWERS JUST BARELY INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS AREAS,
WILL FIZZLE OUT ACROSS THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
- A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES STARTING MONDAY WITH HIGHS DOWN
TO THE LOW TO MID 50S WEDNESDAY AND LOWS DOWN TO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A 35-60% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL BEST POTENTIAL
WILL LIE TOWARDS THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 429 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
SHORT TERM: TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WE START THE AFTERNOON OFF WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND WITH A FEW AREAS
OF FOG FROM THE INFLUENCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. TODAY. OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD STICK AROUND
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY CREEPS EASTWARD. ALOFT, A
REX BLOCKING PATTERN (HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED NORTH OF A LOW)
SLOWS THE GENERAL WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM DOWN,
EXTENDING THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THESE OVERCAST SKIES. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINTAIN, KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR SUNDAY.
LOWS FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS, STAYING BETWEEN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
FOG WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SEVERAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AS THE WEAK EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEP
DEWPOINTS CLOSE TO THEIR SATURATION POINTS (MID TO UPPER 40S). A FEW
AREAS OF DENSE FOG MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS A FEW
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (AREAS MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI-CITIES). A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 7PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 11AM SUNDAY MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
GOSPER TO KEARNEY COUNTIES IN NEBRASKA AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
PHILIPS AND SMITH COUNTIES IN KANSAS. THIS DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE
EXPANDED IN SIZE WITH THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE IF THE COVERAGE OF
DENSE FOG LOOKS EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD ANY IN EXTENT. THOUGH MODELED
GUIDANCE (HRRR AND NBM PROBS) IS NOT OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT, THE PROJECTED SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT GIVE US THE CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY IN
ADVANCE.
PRECIPITATION-WISE, THE OUTER BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO JUST BARELY REACH INTO OUR FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS AREAS THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED IN TIME AND ARE EXPECTED TO FIZZLE OUT OVERNIGHT. A FEW
POCKETS OF SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD IN THEORY
MATERIALIZE ACROSS A FEW PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY, THOUGH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN MINOR AND LAST IN ONLY BRIEF DURATIONS.
LONG TERM: MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
THE BIG FEATURE THAT WILL IMPACT THE WEATHER STARTING MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE PAIRED WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH ALOFT.
THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS COLD FRONT WILL SWING BY
MONDAY NIGHT OR OVERNIGHT MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL DROP OVERNIGHT
LOWS TO AS LOW AS THE MID 30S TO MID 40S MONDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY
COLDEST TOWARDS NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE
CERTAIN TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS HIGHS EMBRACE THE LOW TO MID 50S
BY WEDNESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS PROJECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING
AREAWIDE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT (UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S).
THE NEXT BEST AND ONLY MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCE IN THE
FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT (35-60%), LIES MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. CHANCES CURRENTLY PEAK MONDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH POPS REMAIN SOMEWHAT LIMITED AS PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO COME IN A MORE SCATTERED THAN
WIDESPREAD CLUSTER (NAMNEST NOW SUGGESTS BARELY ANY PERCEPTION AT
ALL). NONETHELESS, THE BEST POTENTIAL GENERALLY LIES TOWARDS THE
NORTH FOR AREAS LYING CLOSER TO THE CENTER TROUGH AXIS (VORTICITY
MAXIMA). IN ALL, ONLY A TRACE TO A FEW TENTS OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR THE PERIOD.
BESIDES PRECIPITATION, WIND DIRECTIONS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL TURN
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. GUSTY WINDS LOOK MORE FEASIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON (25-35MPH). CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST
WHERE AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD DROP JUST BELLOW 30-40%.
TEMPERATURES BEYOND WEDNESDAY SHOULD REBOUND SIGHTLY, WITH HIGH
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 60S AGAIN BY NEXT SATURDAY. FEATURE-WISE,
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL FILTER IN ACROSS THE BACK HALF OF
NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW MAINTAINING ALOFT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 500 FEET UNTIL
AROUND 16Z/17Z SUNDAY. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE A LITTLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 1,500 FEET.
VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF KGRI AND KEAR WILL
EXPERIENCE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILE BUT IT IS POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ072>074-
082>084.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ005-006-017-
018.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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