226
FXUS63 KGID 261742
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1242 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BROKEN RECORD OF CLOUDY, COOL, AND DAMP/DREARY CONDITIONS
CONTINUES TODAY AND YET AGAIN ON MONDAY. SOME AREAS OF DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING SW OF THE TRI-CITIES, BUT DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE AS WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY.
- NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND WIDESPREAD
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (PERHAPS A FEW WEAK STORMS) MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL FINALLY CLEAR OUT THE STUBBORN
AND PERSISTENT STRATUS.
- BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS (W/NW WIND GUSTS 35-45 MPH) WILL MOVE
IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY. UNCERTAIN ON THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS JUST YET DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
- HALLOWEEN LOOKS TO BE DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL IN THE 50S TO
UPPER 40S. WINDS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY MODEST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 458 AM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
NOT GOING TO BELABOR THE SHORT TERM ALL THAT MUCH AS IT'S REALLY
JUST MORE OF THE SAME FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LOW
SPINNING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO FLING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT ON STEADY, LIGHT
SERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP THE STRATUS LOCKED IN PLACE UNTIL WE
GET A SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT, WHICH DOESN'T LOOK TO OCCUR UNTIL
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...COOL AND CLOUDY/DREARY CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN LOCKED IN PLACE. DENSE FOG REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IN SPOTS
FROM TIME TO TIME - MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. HOWEVER, CURRENT OBS SUGGEST IT'S NOT REALLY PANNING OUT
THUS FAR THIS MORNING - WHICH IS KIND OF WHAT SOME OF THE MODELS
HAD BEEN HINTING AT. EC HAS PROBABLY DONE THE BEST OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT CONSISTENTLY SUGGESTED DENSE FOG WOULD BE
GREATEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SAT AM, POSSIBLE BUT MORE SPOTTY SAT
NIGHT INTO THIS MORNING, THEN REALLY JUST MORE OF THE 1-5SM
"HAZY" TYPE CONDITIONS TODAY INTO MON. MAY VERY WELL SCALE BACK
THE ONGOING DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS, AND
GIVEN THE ABOVE - WOULD THINK AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY TONIGHT IS
UNLIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE WITHIN A VARY
NARROW RANGE FROM UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HRS.
GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT OUR NEXT COLD FRONT -
ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH - WILL PUSH
INTO FAR W AREAS BY AROUND SUNSET MON EVE, THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA MON NIGHT. DETERMINISTIC EC HAS
INCREASED IT'S QPF FOOTPRINT/MAGNITUDE FROM A COUPLE DAYS AGO
(AS THE EPS SUGGESTED IT PROBABLY WOULD) AND IT ACTUALLY NOW A
BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. CANADIAN ALSO SUGGESTS A
PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR MOISTURE. IF ANYTHING, THE BIGGEST
"CHANGE" FROM 24-48 HRS AGO IS THAT CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR
OUR S HALF/THIRD, SUCH THAT PRETTY MUCH THE ENTIRE AREA HAS A
SIMILAR 50-60% CHANCE. REALISTICALLY, WOULD PROBABLY PUT CHANCES
EVEN HIGHER TOWARD 70-80% FOR HWY 81 CORRIDOR. AT ANY RATE,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GIVES 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE RANGES FROM
0.10-0.25" W OF HWY 183, TO AS MUCH AS 0.25-0.75" TOWARDS THE
HWY 81 CORRIDOR. DETERMINISTIC EC SUGGESTS LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS AROUND 1" POSSIBLE AROUND THE COLUMBUS AREA. AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA MON NIGHT, IT WILL ALSO TAKE WITH
IT THE WIDESPREAD, PERSISTENT/STUBBORN STRATUS AS DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERS IN ON WRLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
TUESDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE ONE OF THE WINDIER DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING 35-45 MPH
GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH AS BEEN
TRENDING DEEPER, SLOWER, AND FURTHER W/SW IN IT'S PLACEMENT FOR
TUESDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO MORE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE, HIGHER
RHS, AND LESSER FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THIS WOULD ALSO TEND TO
LIMIT THE HIGHER END OF GUSTS AND KEEP RISKS FOR 50+ GUSTS
PRETTY LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS, BUT GIVEN THE
TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS, WILL NOT MENTION ANYTHING IN
THE HWO AT THIS TIME.
FAIRLY QUIET AND OVERALL SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS LOOK TO
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH INCLUDES FOR
HALLOWEEN TRICK-OR-TREATERS. LATEST BLEND FAVORS TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S LATE AFTERNOON, FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S AROUND
SUNSET. WIND ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY MODEST IN THE 10-15 MPH
RANGE, PERHAPS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20 MPH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
ALL IN ALL, NOT TOO BAD. THE GENERALLY DRIER AIR MASS AND LESSER
CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN FOR FROST AND FREEZE
POTENTIAL MID TO LATE WEEK - BUT AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS, THIS ISN'T REALLY MUCH OF A SURPRISE OR STORY GIVEN
IT'S ALMOST NOVEMBER. MAINLY JUST A REMINDER FOR FOLKS THAT MAY
NOT HAVE DRAINED OUTDOOR HOSES/SPRINKLERS JUST YET.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL WARMUP INTO THE 60S AND
70S (PERHAPS EVEN SOME LOWER 80S?) IN TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND
LIFR, IFR AND LOW END MVFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD COVERAGE STAYS IN PLACE. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO GREATER THAN 6SM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
(BEST CONFIDENCE BETWEEN 21-3Z), THOUGH FOG WILL LIKELY REFORM
OVERNIGHT (MAINLY BETWEEN 6Z AND 16Z). VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
AS LOW AS 1-3SM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION, CEILINGS
SHOULD STAY BELOW MVFR LEVELS TODAY (IFR FOR KEAR) WITH CEILINGS
NO HIGHER THAN 1,500 FEET AND NO LOWER THAN 300FT. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 3-16Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN TIME. LIGHT RAIN COULD IMPEDE NEAR THE
END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
FOR NOW.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...STUMP
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