578
FXUS63 KGID 262045
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
345 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW TENTS OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING (HIGHEST CHANCES
40-80%). THE BEST CONFIDENCE LIES MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
- HIGHS WILL COOL DOWN AROUND 10 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY (MID 40S
TO LOW 50S) BEFORE WARMING UP NEXT WEEKEND (MID TO UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE NEXT SUNDAY). THE COLDEST LOWS OF THE WEEK SHOULD
FALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (MID 20S TO LOW 30S).
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND PROBABLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 30-45MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S HALLOWEEN NIGHT
(6-10PM).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TODAY AS THE OVERCAST SKIES
CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND FROM LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. IN ADDITION, SOME
SCATTERED SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN SCOURING ABOUT AND
ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR
UNTOUCHED FROM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL ONLY DIP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM (RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LINGERING CLOUDS) ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CREEP EASTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM'S SLOW PROGRESSION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. HAS BEEN A
RESULT OF A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS ALLOWED THIS LOW TO
STALL. AN INCOMING NORTHWEST BASED TROUGH SHOULD DIG DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STARTING MONDAY, BRINGING A FEW CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST DISCUSSED LATER ON.
AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT TO STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEP DEWPOINTS
FROM DEGRADING, LEAVING A NEAR-SATURATED AIRMASS AROUND. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL JUST A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT, FOG WILL YET AGAIN
HAVE ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF REDEVELOPING. THOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF
DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY THE HRRR, NBM AND REFS TO
NAME A FEW MODELS, THE OVERALL SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE LESS COHERENT AS
THE PAST TWO NIGHT HAVE BEEN. IN FACT, THE MODELS EVEN OVERSHOT THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS DENSE FOG COVERAGE, LEAVING US WITH EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY IF DENSE FOG WILL ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE. MOST AREAS
SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1-3 MILES,
WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPORARY DROPS IN
VISIBILITY JUST BELOW A MILE AT TIMES.
THE NEXT BIG WEATHER PATTERN SHIFT, MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COULD FRONT BARRELS DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES GENERALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. OUR CURRENT PROBABILISTIC
FORECAST START CHANCES BETWEEN 15-30% IN THE MORNING HOURS, SLOWLY
RAMPING UP TO 40-80% BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODEL OUTCOMES ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A MORE
CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY A STORM OR TWO
CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS AHEAD OR BEHIND THIS MAIN CLUSTER CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPPORTING BROAD AND WIDESPREAD ASSENT (UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTING A
VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA). AS RESULT, A FEW LOWER-END POPS
START MONDAY MORNING AND TRAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA (GREATEST POTENTIAL MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT). THE COVERAGE OF
ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY, EVENTUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS EAST OF HWY-281 COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER
LINGERING BEHIND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON (20-30% CHANCE).
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MAINLY RANGE BETWEEN
0.1-0.4" OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH A FEW OUTLIERS
COULD EMERGE ACROSS A FEW NORTH OR EAST LYING LOCATIONS.
LOOKING PAST THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, TEMPERATURES STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS HEADING INTO THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. THE OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO WITHER
AWAY TUESDAY, THOUGH MOST PLACES MAY NOT SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
DROP TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK PROBABLY FALLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S).
WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL ADDITIONALLY TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST,
HELPING THE COOL AND DRIER AIRMASS MIX DOWN. GUSTY CONDITIONS LOOK
PROBABLE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE QUICKLY TRIES TO RUSH BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WILL COMPRESS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, HELPING CRANK UP GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLIES UP TO 30-45MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE
THE GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LIMITED UNDERNEATH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES FROM DROPPING BELLOW 35-
50%. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONT AND THE TROUGHS PASSAGE, THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MODEL CLUSTERS SUGGEST THIS TROUGH TO PINCH OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A
CLOSED LOW. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS NORTHWEST
FLOW THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE
HORIZON. TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY TO NEXT SUNDAY MAY INCREASE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES HALLOWEEN
NIGHT CURRENTLY LOOK TO SPAN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 40S BETWEEN 6-10PM.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND
LIFR, IFR AND LOW END MVFR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD COVERAGE STAYS IN PLACE. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPROVE TO GREATER THAN 6SM FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
(BEST CONFIDENCE BETWEEN 21-3Z), THOUGH FOG WILL LIKELY REFORM
OVERNIGHT (MAINLY BETWEEN 6Z AND 16Z). VISIBILITIES COULD DROP
AS LOW AS 1-3SM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. IN ADDITION, CEILINGS
SHOULD STAY BELOW MVFR LEVELS TODAY (IFR FOR KEAR) WITH CEILINGS
NO HIGHER THAN 1,500 FEET AND NO LOWER THAN 300FT. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS WILL FALL OVERNIGHT WITH LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
BETWEEN 3-16Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, OCCASIONALLY
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 15-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS MAY
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN TIME. LIGHT RAIN COULD IMPEDE NEAR THE
END OF THE 18Z TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
FOR NOW.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page