858
FXUS63 KGID 270542
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1242 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING A FEW TENTS OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING (HIGHEST CHANCES
40-80%). THE BEST CONFIDENCE LIES MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
- HIGHS WILL COOL DOWN AROUND 10 DEGREES BY WEDNESDAY (MID 40S
TO LOW 50S) BEFORE WARMING UP NEXT WEEKEND (MID TO UPPER 60S
POSSIBLE NEXT SUNDAY). THE COLDEST LOWS OF THE WEEK SHOULD
FALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS (MID 20S TO LOW 30S).
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND PROBABLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. NORTH TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 30-45MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S HALLOWEEN NIGHT
(6-10PM).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SUN OCT 26 2025
SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TODAY AS THE OVERCAST SKIES
CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND FROM LOW-LEVEL STRATUS. IN ADDITION, SOME
SCATTERED SPOTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN SCOURING ABOUT AND
ACROSS SEVERAL LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON APPEAR
UNTOUCHED FROM SATURDAY WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE 50S. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL ONLY DIP A FEW DEGREES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM (RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LINGERING CLOUDS) ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CREEP EASTWARD. THIS
SYSTEM'S SLOW PROGRESSION ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. HAS BEEN A
RESULT OF A REX BLOCKING PATTERN WHICH HAS ALLOWED THIS LOW TO
STALL. AN INCOMING NORTHWEST BASED TROUGH SHOULD DIG DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STARTING MONDAY, BRINGING A FEW CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST DISCUSSED LATER ON.
AT THE SURFACE, LIGHT TO STEADY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS KEEP DEWPOINTS
FROM DEGRADING, LEAVING A NEAR-SATURATED AIRMASS AROUND. AS
TEMPERATURES COOL JUST A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT, FOG WILL YET AGAIN
HAVE ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF REDEVELOPING. THOUGH A FEW PATCHES OF
DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AS INDICATED BY THE HRRR, NBM AND REFS TO
NAME A FEW MODELS, THE OVERALL SIGNAL APPEARS TO BE LESS COHERENT AS
THE PAST TWO NIGHT HAVE BEEN. IN FACT, THE MODELS EVEN OVERSHOT THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS DENSE FOG COVERAGE, LEAVING US WITH EVEN MORE
UNCERTAINTY IF DENSE FOG WILL ACTUALLY MATERIALIZE. MOST AREAS
SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1-3 MILES,
WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS SEEING TEMPORARY DROPS IN
VISIBILITY JUST BELOW A MILE AT TIMES.
THE NEXT BIG WEATHER PATTERN SHIFT, MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, WILL
OCCUR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS A COULD FRONT BARRELS DOWN FROM
THE NORTHWEST ALONG WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA WITH CHANCES GENERALLY
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. OUR CURRENT PROBABILISTIC
FORECAST START CHANCES BETWEEN 15-30% IN THE MORNING HOURS, SLOWLY
RAMPING UP TO 40-80% BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODEL OUTCOMES ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON THE IDEA OF A MORE
CONCENTRATED BAND OF SHOWERS WITH POTENTIALLY A STORM OR TWO
CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS AHEAD OR BEHIND THIS MAIN CLUSTER CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
SUPPORTING BROAD AND WIDESPREAD ASSENT (UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ADVECTING A
VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA). AS RESULT, A FEW LOWER-END POPS
START MONDAY MORNING AND TRAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
AREA (GREATEST POTENTIAL MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT). THE COVERAGE OF
ANY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY, EVENTUALLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS EAST OF HWY-281 COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER
LINGERING BEHIND INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON (20-30% CHANCE).
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY PROJECTED TO MAINLY RANGE BETWEEN
0.1-0.4" OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH A FEW OUTLIERS
COULD EMERGE ACROSS A FEW NORTH OR EAST LYING LOCATIONS.
LOOKING PAST THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, TEMPERATURES STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT WILL DROP BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS HEADING INTO THE
MID 30S TO MID 40S. THE OVERCAST SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN TO WITHER
AWAY TUESDAY, THOUGH MOST PLACES MAY NOT SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY
DROP TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR HIGHS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK PROBABLY FALLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S).
WINDS WITH THE FRONT WILL ADDITIONALLY TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST,
HELPING THE COOL AND DRIER AIRMASS MIX DOWN. GUSTY CONDITIONS LOOK
PROBABLE TUESDAY AND POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHER PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE QUICKLY TRIES TO RUSH BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WILL COMPRESS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, HELPING CRANK UP GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLIES UP TO 30-45MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DESPITE
THE GUSTY WINDS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LIMITED UNDERNEATH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES FROM DROPPING BELLOW 35-
50%. THIS WILL LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONT AND THE TROUGHS PASSAGE, THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MODEL CLUSTERS SUGGEST THIS TROUGH TO PINCH OFF TUESDAY NIGHT INTO A
CLOSED LOW. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS NORTHWEST
FLOW THOUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON THE
HORIZON. TEMPERATURES FROM FRIDAY TO NEXT SUNDAY MAY INCREASE FROM
THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES HALLOWEEN
NIGHT CURRENTLY LOOK TO SPAN THE LOW 50S TO LOW 40S BETWEEN 6-10PM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR TO LIFR CIGS AND MVFR TO IFR VSBYS LIKELY MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE LATE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT PRIMARILY IFR TO LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
MUCH OF THE TIME BETWEEN NOW AND AROUND MIDDAY. SHOULD IMPROVE
TO MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. VSBYS ARE A BIT
MORE UNCERTAIN, BUT NOT EXPECTING DENSE FOG AND LIFR
VSBYS...SHOULD BE MORE IN THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE AND LOWEST FROM
AROUND 09Z TO 15Z. MAINLY MVFR TO VFR VSBYS EXPECTED LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE SRLY
COMPONENT TODAY, OR MORE SE TO SSE. SPEEDS SHOULD AVERAGE
8-12KT, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 17KT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AS CIGS ONCE
AGAIN FALL TO, OR BELOW, IFR THRESHOLDS AROUND SUNSET. HAVE
PROB30S STARTING 23Z-00Z, THEN PREVAILING -SHRA AROUND 02Z-03Z.
CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE, OR TWO, OF THUNDER...BUT CHANCES NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD, A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W AND START TO VEER THE WINDS.
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE TERMINALS LOOKS TO BE JUST BEYOND
THIS VALID TAF PERIOD AROUND 06Z-08Z IN WHICH WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NW AND CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS THE STUBBORN STRATUS IS FINALLY
SCOURED OUT. SFC WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY/WINDY LATE MON NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...THIES
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